MAS B772 9M-MRO Flight MH370 KUL-PEK Missing with All 239 POB Presumed Killed

[Cire 0]

EXCLUSIVE: Did MH370 crew succumb to fire catastrophe?

 

The former head of security for the United States’ Federal Aviation Administration insists that rather than portraying the crew of the missing Malaysian Airlines Flight 370 as saboteurs, the pilots struggled heroically to save their aircraft until overcome by smoke from a catastrophic cargo fire.

 

Billie Vincent who served as the FAA’s civil aviation security chief played a key policy and crisis management role in the handling of all hijackings of US aircraft in the 1980s. He was also in charge of the agency’s armed Federal Air Marshals and served as an expert witness in the trial of the Pan Am 103 terrorist bombing.

 

After leaving the FAA he led an international consulting firm which was contracted in the 1990s to design and implement the security system of Malaysia’s Kuala Lumpur International Airport where Flight 370, carrying 227 passengers and 12 crew, started its journey at 12.41 am on March 8 before disappearing from civilian radar en route to Beijing at 1.21 am.

 

Officials in Malaysia claim that, based on ‘pings’ sent from the aircraft to an Inmarsat satellite, the aircraft was deliberately diverted and may have flown as far north as Central Asia or south over the Indian Ocean. They suspect that someone on board the aircraft first disabled one of its communications systems – the Aircraft and Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) around 40 minutes after takeoff before switching off the aircraft’s transponder in a systematic effort to render the aircraft invisible to air traffic surveillance.

 

Speaking exclusively to Air Traffic Management, Vincent dismisses the likelihood of a bomb being detonated on board which would have ruptured the pressure hull of the aircraft citing the fact that the aircraft was tracked by a series of satellite ‘pings’. That would indicate that Flight MH370 flew for up to seven more hours which would not have been possible if it had been compromised.

 

“The data released thus far most likely points to a problem with hazardous materials. This scenario begins with the eruption of hazardous materials within the cargo hold – either improperly packaged or illegally shipped – or both,” says Vincent.

 

In his view, a fire which started in the cargo hold progressively and serially destroyed the aircraft’s communications systems; toxic fumes quickly overwhelmed the passenger cabin and the cockpit where at least one of the flight crew managed to don an oxygen mask allowing them to turn the aircraft back to Kuala Lumpur.

 

Flight 370 is reported to have climbed to 45,000ft which Vincent believes could have been due simply to the inability of the flight crew to clearly see and set the controls for a return to Kuala Lumpur.

 

Vincent guesses that control could have been regained and the aircraft sent back to a lower altitude of around 23,000 ft – which is a diversion altitude set by manufacturers of large transport aircraft to prevent a fire taking further hold and which both allows better survivability for those on board and vents the avionics bays.

 

The final report of a UPS B747 crash in Dubai in 2010, details how that crew similarly attempted to depressurise the freighter aircraft to slow down the fire 30 seconds after the loss of aircraft systems and flight controls. In that accident, the time interval between fire detection and the onset of aircraft system failures was around two and a half minutes.

The last verbal communication from Flight 370 was issued at 1.19 am as the aircraft left Malaysian airspace. It then disappeared from air traffic controllers’ screens at 1.21 am whilst flying over the South China Sea.

 

Vincent guesses that the crew did manage to stabilise the aircraft and set it on a new course before once again succumbing to either a loss of oxygen or the remaining toxic fumes.

 

“The airplane then continues flying until no fuel remains and crashes – most likely into the ocean as there has been no report of any Emergency Locater Transmitter (ELT) signal which can be received by satellite if the crash were on land,” says Vincent.

 

Vincent insists other scenarios involving hijacking and sabotage are improbable. “For instance, there is no indication that either of the pilots was criminally involved in the disappearance of this airplane. Neither has Malaysia released any data indicating anything amiss in the security clearance of the passengers for this flight. The one question raised about the two passengers travelling on stolen passports has been cleared indicating that they were planning on illegally claiming refugee status in another country, probably Germany.”

 

“I have yet to see anything released about the nature and content of the cargo carried in the cargo hold of Flight 370. Hazardous cargo can be legally carried on passenger aircraft. However, the amount and type of such hazardous materials are strictly controlled,” says Vincent.

 

While all hazardous materials must be properly contained and labelled – and declared to the airline transporting it, Vincent notes that hazardous materials have been – knowingly and unknowingly – labelled improperly for carriage on passenger aircraft in addition to having been carried on board unlawfully by passengers.

 

http://www.airtrafficmanagement.net/2014/03/exclusive-mh370-crew-succumbed-to-fire-catastrophe/

 

A plausible theory

 

 

 

 

 

 

How old is this theory? In case the author missed it, there are several nearest airports for the pilots to land in case of emergency. It don't have to fly all the way to the north. In the true event that all communications are lost, won't it be prudent for the pilots to land soonest rather than continuing to fly further?

Personally, I think it's difficult to say if the RMAF did the right thing, or was wrong not to do anything.

 

We know that the last ATC transmission from Lumpur to MH370 was at 1:19am. We also know that the transponder was presumably shut off shortly thereafter, at 1:21am, as that was the time it disappeared off civilian radar. MH370 was over the FIR boundary between Lumpur and Ho Chi Minh at this point. They had a positive handoff from Lumpur but Ho Chi Minh never heard them.

 

These things happen everyday. Negative radar contact, negative voice contact. It happens. All the time. All over world. No cause for alarm.

 

Ho Chi Minh, who would be expecting MH370, would make several attempts on the VHF frequency to contact them. After several tries, the norm would be to ask any traffic in the vicinity to relay a message to MH370. Other traffic would try contacting them on the VHF frequency for that area, or 121.5, the universal on-guard frequency. The controller may even try contacting MH370 on other published VHF or HF frequencies for the Ho Chi Minh FIR. In parallel, the Ho Chi Minh controller would contact his Lumpur counterpart. One can imagine him asking "are you sure MH370 acknowledged your handoff and you had him on your radar?". And Lumpur, I'd imagine would say yes, all was good and normal.

 

So now the Ho Chi Minh guy is really confused. Nothing on the radar, nobody can contact him on whatever frequency, yet all was ok with Lumpur just seconds before he was supposed to talk to Ho Chi Minh Control. And no emergency squawks either.

 

It's important at this juncture to keep in mind that both Ho Chi Minh and Lumpur do not have the benefit of hindsight. You do not expect an aircraft to just vanish, without any emergency squawks. And the minutes are ticking by.

 

Confusion sets in.

 

Imagine if you were a Ho Chi Minh controller. Lumpur told him he's here but he isn't. No signs of distress. He could be ANYWHERE in my airspace. But WHERE? And then imagine if you were a Lumpur controller. Ho Chi Minh can't see or talk to him, but it sure was ok when I talked to him. Surely he's SOMEWHERE in Ho Chi Minh FIR. I'd be a blind man to miss an emergency squawk on my screen if he came back in. MH370 has to be in Ho Chi Minh airspace.

 

Many minutes have now passed.

 

Both have now exhausted their resources and it's time to push the panic button. Activate SAR? Never mind, lets buzz the military in Gong Kedak (presumably).

 

It's important at this juncture to remember that military IFF primary radar only raises an alarm if you're identified as a positive threat. A commercial aircraft with its transponder turned off (important here to note that they did not know this yet at this point in time) isn't necessarily a threat. I'm no military expert, but I would assume there would be different levels of alert. In short, for a peacetime country like Malaysia, and with no intelligence reports of threats against the country, the military would at most times, be at a lower level of alert. In other words, you're not gonna eyeball every aircraft passing through Malaysia like a hawk.

 

So you ring the RMAF controller, and on his radar, all he sees are friendly commercial "blips". Even at that time of the night, the skies over Peninsula Malaysia, the Gulf of Thailand and South China Sea are busy with lots of traffic going in all sorts of direction.

 

The Lumpur controller tells his RMAF controller to look for something, but has zero idea of where the aircraft is. Seriously dude, says the RMAF controller, you gotta tell me something. I've got blips everywhere. You can only tell me the last known position, which was donkeys minutes ago, you think he's in Ho Chi Minh airspace but want me to check anyway without knowing where he's coming from and no hint where he's going to? Lumpur says, dude, we have nothing!

 

At this juncture, it's important to note the aircraft's trajectory towards the Straits of Malacca also crossed substantial parts of Southern Thailand. As such, it may gone in and out of RMAF's radar coverage intermittently. It's an assumption since we won't know how far is the extent of RMAF's coverage.

 

So while the RMAF is trying to pick out a blip, the aircraft at this point in time, may or may not be under his coverage. And with so many friendly blips in the sky, where do you start? But the RMAF looks anyway. Surely if MH370 came back, it should appear somewhere by now around the Kelantan or Northern Peninsula.

 

The situation is well and truly out of control at this stage. Nobody in RMAF's other control centres, presumably Penang, Kuantan or Subang would have known if MH370 came under their primary radar. Who in the world that night would have looked all the way to the other side west of the peninsula, close to Sumatra for MH370, just one of many friendly blips?

 

Of course we now know after investigation that MH370's final blip on the military's radar was at 2:15am.

 

All this was happening in less than 1 hour from the time of the last ATC transmission with Lumpur. Sounds like a long time when you're lying comfortably on the sofa. But nothing more than a blink when all that is happening.

 

The RMAF never stood a chance of scrambling their fighters in time.

 

 

Okay, assumed this is near to the truth of the whole story on why the RMAF failed to detect MH370 when it deviated from the fly route, why not just say it out in the first place rather than hiding behind some security reasons? How long that it takes for the big brass to screen it and say it is okay to tell the world and it would not hurt the defence system?

People would have understand.

 

Now, based on this theory, it appears that there is a severe time vacumm between the DCA and the military. However, the DCA stand by its words that it has followed protocols right to the dot.

But then, we would not completely know what are the Malaysian's DCA protocols is for missing aircraft. "only call me after 6am?"

[V Wong 0]

Went thru KLIA security last night, no one looking at the X-ray monitor properly, all chatting. WTF?

 

KLIA is the only airport I fly through these days where there is double security checks, and it is the only one which I feel that is most useless.

Had been like that since.... I don't know when! Short of snapping at them to stop chatting, I don't know what to do. At first check point, sometimes long queues due to apparent 'shortage' of yellow tray to put stuff in - at times only 3 trays were functionally being used in one line, creating a backlog due to wait for tray. On further examination, it appeared that passengers were slowly reassembling their stuff from the trays, security just stood there chatting away without linking their grey cells or synapses to try and solve the problem. Mentally shouting at them : get the other trays in line!

Edited March 20, 2014 by V Wong

[leon t 0]

am not sure if there's so many "friendly" blips on unidentitifed aircrafts through Malaysian airspace everyday/nite? Believed in most countries or even in Singapore, that their air force allow such "friendly" blips and how do they know its commercial planes if their transponders are off and in the 1st place why are these commercial planes have their transponder off - and for such commercial flights they would have filed a flight plan through the air space.

[Waiping 12]

My side they do keep a keen eye on every bag that goes thru the X-ray, and almost all bags are required to be scan.

 

Btw, they are not airport security but the customs dept. So you know lah.

[leon t 0]

and believed Singapore long range radar can cover about 400 km distance as it still controls the air space over Malaysia above a certain high attitude - hence technically if there were such a blip believd to be MH370 heading along Malacca Straits, it should have picked it up - if not its RSAF radars would have esp in the western part of Singapore in tengah where its main air force base is located too.

[alberttky 0]

Why I'll still fly Malaysia Airlines, despite the loss of MH370

 

http://www.ausbt.com.au/why-i-ll-still-fly-malaysia-airlines-despite-the-loss-of-mh370?utm_source=internal&utm_medium=flipper&utm_campaign=home-flipper

[KK Lee 5]

Had been like that since.... I don't know when! Short of snapping at them to stop chatting, I don't know what to do. At first check point, sometimes long queues due to apparent 'shortage' of yellow tray to put stuff in - at times only 3 trays were functionally being used in one line, creating a backlog due to wait for tray. On further examination, it appeared that passengers were slowly reassembling their stuff from the trays, security just stood there chatting away without linking their grey cells or synapses to try and solve the problem. Mentally shouting at them : get the other trays in line!

 

If I can recall correctly, first check point (after immigration) was implemented to justify security surcharge collection by MAHB. The first check point is normally manned by custom looking for contraband and large quantity of cash, hence, not particular with details.

[Cire 0]

This is just too heart wrenching.......https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=504255733018464&set=vb.499020940208610&type=2&theater

 

To those who have families or relative members on-board, only God knows what they are going through right now.

 

For those who keep bashing the families' members of being irrational, I don't think you have ever been in such a situation. If you are in their shoes, what you will do? Leave this question to you...............

 

Yes, you are right about these "bashers". They have never encountered such event themselves.

 

I can relate to the missing passengers' kins since personally I had gone through a very traumatic period myself recently. A month of going through cycles of hope, helplessness, and despairs, that literarily stops normal livelihood, and functions. One can easily forget to eat for the whole two days..

 

The uncertainties and false hopes (sightings etc) outthere will surely play havoc with their emotions. They are not able to rest and make peace with themselves, and accept some of the predicative outcomes.

 

The best "medicine" therefore is for them to frame their mindsets to look forward to the outcome, be it a good, or a bad one.

To come to terms that there is a high possibility of not seeing their loved ones anymore. To now take hope with a pinch of salt. This will at lease lessen their emotional sufferings.

[KK Lee 5]

and believed Singapore long range radar can cover about 400 km distance as it still controls the air space over Malaysia above a certain high attitude - hence technically if there were such a blip believd to be MH370 heading along Malacca Straits, it should have picked it up - if not its RSAF radars would have esp in the western part of Singapore in tengah where its main air force base is located too.

 

Radar is line of sight. As singapore don't have high hill, its ground radar may have the power to paint an object 400km away but at impractical altitude.

Edited March 20, 2014 by KK Lee

[V Wong 0]

My side they do keep a keen eye on every bag that goes thru the X-ray, and almost all bags are required to be scan.

 

Btw, they are not airport security but the customs dept. So you know lah.

There were pretty eagle eyed ..only if there is something highly valuable in my bag. Never fail to ask me to show them, despite knowing those are not contraband.

[Zaryl Ariff 0]

http://seademon.wordpress.com/2014/03/20/mh370-i-speak-out/

 

I think this article shed some new and clear lights on RMAF radar.

[S V Choong 4]

Australia spots possible objects in ocean

 

http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/19/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane/index.html

[Mohd Suhaimi Fariz 2]

The uncertainties and false hopes (sightings etc) outthere will surely play havoc with their emotions. They are not able to rest and make peace with themselves, and accept some of the predicative outcomes.

And therein lies the problem. Chinese media is doing their best to inflame sentiments, while Western media is doing their best to speculate & dramatize the incident as something that's bigger than it actually is.

 

All done in the name of freedom of speech.

[flee 5]

From BBC:

 

John Young, a spokesman for the Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA), tells a press conference that the objects were located in the southern Indian Ocean about 2,500km (1,550 miles) south-west of Perth on Australia's west coast.

Asked about the size of the objects, Mr Young said one piece was approximately 24m (78ft).

Mr Young: "The objects are relatively indistinct. Those who are expert say they are credible sightings."

Mr Young: "Weather conditions are moderate but poor visibility has been reported, which will hamper air and satellite efforts."

Mr Young added: "What we're looking for is confirmation that it does belong to the aircraft or does not." When asked whether specific items such as plane windows were visible he replied: "The imagery is not that precise."

[Najib Ramli 0]

I have a question since I'm not by any chance related to the Airlines industry and have very little knowledge regarding airplane communication...

 

it's about the theory that MH370 was comprimized by cockpit fire cutting off their communciation system and tried to divery to either Penang or Langkawi...

 

assuming this is correct, how would the plane communicate with the control tower once they reach the destination to guide the landing or even clear the airspace to allow them to safely land?

 

and also wouldn't it make more sense for the plane to land in TGG. i know it's closed after midnight but the lights from the sorrounding area should be bright enough to guide the plane for an emergency landing..furthermore that would be the safest place to land considering they'd be no other planes along the air corridor at that time as well as the fact that the end of TGG runaway heads straight into the sea...

[flee 5]

Australian Broadcasting Corporation editor Jon Williams

tweets: Crew on @USNavy P-8 spotter tell (ABC correspondent on board P- @WrightUps: "significant radar returns" coming from site where possible #MH370 objects spotted.

[xtemujin 0]

AMSA has found a 24m object, hope that it is the "good" news.

[Mulyadir Fitri 0]

If it is indeed MH370's site then the TNI -AU of Indonesia will have to answer for allowing it to pass their airspace. It seems on that night every military around the region was sleeping.

Edited March 20, 2014 by Mulyadir Fitri

[iwan 3]

24m seems like a fairly large object..hope to hear some good news today!

 

Curious how it could end up all te way there

Edited March 20, 2014 by iwan

[flee 5]

If it is indeed MH370's site then the TNI -AU of Indonesia will have to answer for allowing it to pass their airspace. It seems on that night every military around the region was sleeping.

All I know is RMAF was sleeping that night. Remember the Helios B737 crash (

) - the F-16s watched helplessly as the plane ran out of fuel and crashed. Had the RMAF scrambled jets to intercept MH370, the search would not have been so painful...

[Zaryl Ariff 0]

http://seademon.wordpress.com/2014/03/20/mh370-i-speak-out/

 

I think this article shed some new and clear lights on RMAF radar.

 

 

flee, this is worth reading. It provides a good answer why RMAF didn't scramble their jets.

[flee 5]

flee, this is worth reading. It provides a good answer why RMAF didn't scramble their jets.

The USSR shot down the Korean Airlines B747 (http://edition.cnn.com/2013/08/31/us/kal-fight-007-anniversary/) - they deemed it a threat.

 

All this is subjective - a judgement call - but it does not paint the military of the nations in this region in very good light, in the eyes of the public.

[N Azman 0]

 

flee, this is worth reading. It provides a good answer why RMAF didn't scramble their jets.

 

The source is credible. Everyone should read this.

[Cire 0]

Okay, the photos clearly shows everyone is alert, and bright eyed. Good.

 

Questions.. Communication. Did anyone monitoring the military radar screen made an effort to contact the DCA about MH370's deviation/detour back into Malaysia and out again? More so when the flight route looks abnormal. Or is it not in their protocol to do so? What about the DCA? When they lost contact, did anyone there contacted the RMAF?

 

Who determines whether the blip is hostile or not?

 

And finally, why did it took over 3 days to confirm the sightings?

[Mohd Suhaimi Fariz 2]

The USSR shot down the Korean Airlines B747 (http://edition.cnn.com/2013/08/31/us/kal-fight-007-anniversary/) - they deemed it a threat.

 

All this is subjective - a judgement call - but it does not paint the military of the nations in this region in very good light, in the eyes of the public.

 

To be fair the USSR at the time was under heightened alert due to rising tensions during the Cold War. Also KE007 strayed far away from normal airways into ultra sensitive military airspace.

 

MH370 is a much different scenario.