MAS Briefing at 16th World Route Development Forum

[jani 0]

All that is to follow is courtesy of @airlineroute (http://twitter.com/airlineroute). Sorry if it is hard to read, apologies in advance.

 

 

-A380 replace 747. 787 or 350 replace 330 post 2015

 

-Future fleet: 738, 350/787 (uncertain; post 2015), 380

 

-A330-300 interim new mid-size aircraft

 

-Airbus A330-300 replaces 332/(old) 333/777

 

-A380 Routes... London, Sydney only. May be Amsterdam

 

-New A330-300 delivery from April 2011

 

-A380 order is firm. First in Apr 2012

 

-no mentioning of 77W in MAS briefing

 

-A380 on high density routes. 777 replace 744 long-haul.

 

-A330-300"NG" replace "high-cost" 777 on medium-haul

 

-737-800 to Perth and Darwin

 

-737-800 replace "old A330" in Asia. allows increasing frequencies

 

-738 allows freq. to CAN /HKG

 

-NEW A330-300 to South Africa

 

-average fleet age by FY2015: 5.2 years ( SQ 6-8, CX 9-11, AK 7-8 )

 

-NEW A330-300 replace 777 to Australia/NZ. and mid-east, high density routes in Asia

 

-possible 2ndary cities with 737-800

 

-No mentioning of Premium Economy on A380

 

-A330 "too big" for Kunming

 

-NEW A330-300 "could reach" Southern Europe

 

-Earliest 350/787 slot is 2019

 

 

Again, all thanks to @airlineroute (http://twitter.com/airlineroute) for covering the briefing. Technology is amazing. Information relayed so quickly.

Edited September 21, 2010 by jani

[Johan Z 0]

It has been mentioned before, the new A330-300 won't be equipped with crew rest area, so won't fly further than 8 hours. So, this briefing is really interesting. One thing is certain, we will see 777 flying around a bit longer than I expected.

[jani 0]

It is covered here http://airlineroute.net/2010/09/20/routesyvr-mh/ in a much more organized manner.

[Josh T 0]

A most fascinating read!

 

So, the A380 is just going to serve SYD and LHR. Surely, they don't need 6 iarcraft to service this route. I'm sure AMS will end up being served as well and it will be an opporunity for KLM to code-share with MAS on this sector given the increased capacity.

 

Looks like the B777 will remain a long-haul work-horse for MH in the coming years but they clearly won't need as many as they have now. This aircraft will continue to serve CDG, FCO and FRA. I'm also assuming that LAX will continue to be served by the B777. Anyway, it's nice to see that MH are deciding whether it will be the B787 or the A350 that will ultimately replace the B777 and the A330NG.

 

It also looks like the A330NG will fly to AKL, MEL, BNE, ADL and PER. It will also cover their Asian, Indian and Middle-Eastern routes. I'm curious as to whether MH will supplement the A380 service to SYD with the B777 or the A330NG (since it has a smaller capacity than the B777, which makes up for the increased capacity from the A380).

 

It's also nice to see MH re-considering secondary destinations like DRW and secondary routes using the B738.

[flee 5]

Well it is interesting to note that MH has no plans for a B777 replacement and many mentions were made on the A330 replacement. I presume those A330 replacements are for their old 1990's airframes, not the ones that were ordered in 2010. These new A330s will replace the B777 on the regional routes, thus freeing them up for long haul.

 

So the B747's will be replaced by the A380 (for LHR and SYD) and the B777 (for other B747 routes). I would not be surprised that when MH orders the B787/A350, these will replace both the old A330's and B777's.

 

As for the A380, I think MH is correct that it only has capacity to service the LHR and SYD routes with only six aircraft. LHR double daily needs 3 aircraft and SYD double daily would need 2 aircraft. That leaves one spare - and this will be needed when aircraft goes into maintenance or repairs. In any case, it takes a while for all the A380's to be delivered - so I think initially, MH will start with one flight to LHR.

[jani 0]

Well it says there that the new A330's are "interim", meaning that the new ones are only for the time-being before they decide on 787 or A350.

[Mohd Suhaimi Fariz 2]

Well it says there that the new A330's are "interim", meaning that the new ones are only for the time-being before they decide on 787 or A350.

 

Well considering the closest slot for A350/787 deliveries are in 2019, I guess they will only be fully replaced by 2021 at the soonest.

 

And note the delivery date of the A380. April 2012, exactly a year after the delivery of the first A330!

[flee 5]

2019 delivery slots points to B787.

 

When D7 ordered the A350 last year their delivery slot was 2015 and when CX ordered recently, its first delivery was for 2016. Unless MH is looking at the A350-1000, it would appear that they may be seriously thinking of the B787s.

 

Or it may just be their PR spin....

[Josh T 0]

I do believe that the A350/B787 is to replace the A330NG after they've been in service for about 8 years. The The A330NG is to replace all the old A330 and some of the B777.

[KK Lee 5]

Since 787/A350 is identified for post 2015. What are they waiting for?

[flee 5]

They may be waiting for some real operational numbers from the launch operators of the planes. Right now all we have are paper calculations.

[KK Lee 5]

If the real operation number deviate from paper calculation, MH won’t order any or will wait until A350NG/787NG?

[flee 5]

If real performance numbers fail to meet claims they will have to re-evaluate what is available and re-do the costings and investment appraisal sums. Look at CX, they are seldom on the leading edge when it comes to aircraft purchases. But they do their sums diligently and take little risks. They even buy second hand aircraft. They do what makes sense to them. They do not follow others blindly. That is why they make tons of money...

[BC Tam 2]

Look at SQ and EK

They have this habit of buying unproven, yet to fly planes by the bucketloads

Both also making tons of money too

 

Moral of the story, money is there to be made either way

Just stick to running an airline as an airline

[Raj 0]

Is there a Mistake for the date of delivery of the A380? Wasn't it meant to be April 2011?

 

Also I seriously doubt the A330 would be able to do KUL-AKL return.

[BC Tam 2]

..... MH won’t order any or will wait until A350NG/787NG?

Don't bother, those NG's come with new paper calculations too

[Mohd Suhaimi Fariz 2]

Is there a Mistake for the date of delivery of the A380? Wasn't it meant to be April 2011?

 

Also I seriously doubt the A330 would be able to do KUL-AKL return.

 

I guess that's why they converted their options for the A330F. Another delay = free/heavily discounted planes?

Edited September 21, 2010 by Mohd Suhaimi Fariz

[flee 5]

Look at SQ and EK

They have this habit of buying unproven, yet to fly planes by the bucketloads

Both also making tons of money too

Big difference is that these two think big and have the financial muscle to do so. MH is puny in terms of financial resources and needs taxpayer bailouts...

 

Is there a Mistake for the date of delivery of the A380? Wasn't it meant to be April 2011?

 

Also I seriously doubt the A330 would be able to do KUL-AKL return.

No mistake - the latest delay meant that the first A380 will come in 2012 instead of 2011.

 

Maybe they are tagging AKL to BNE services.

 

I guess that's why they converted their options for the A330F. Another delay = free/heavily discounted planes?

Perhaps, but MASKargo is at a stage where they will be no longer have any of their own planes, if they do not order anything now. A330-200F is perfect for the role of regional cargo missions - MH is doing roaring business right now and they want more capacity. B747 is a bit too big for these missions as frequency is important too.

[KK Lee 5]

If real performance numbers fail to meet claims they will have to re-evaluate what is available and re-do the costings and investment appraisal sums.

 

What else is available? A33E, 77W, Russian, Chinese?

[flee 5]

What else is available? A33E, 77W, Russian, Chinese?

Should never discount anything in the market, even used (but cheap to buy) aircraft. And also should re-evaluate own fleet and requirements for the network. Not a simple matter. That is why airlines take some time to decide and those who are unsure will hedge their bets, using more than one type of aircraft. Running an airline is not just playing with planes only - there are a lot of other things to consider.

 

Example, D7 needs more A340-300 for its European routes. However, existing lease rates are not favourable to make their economics work. So they have to modify their network plans. Looks like they are no longer so interested in developing the European network until their A350's arrive or until such a time when a good lease deal is available for the A340. Buying or leasing planes require long term commitment to make it work. You cannot just throw a plane away if it does not meet with your requirements. So it has to be carefully evaluated.

[KK Lee 5]

Should never discount anything in the market, even used (but cheap to buy) aircraft. And also should re-evaluate own fleet and requirements for the network. Not a simple matter. That is why airlines take some time to decide and those who are unsure will hedge their bets, using more than one type of aircraft. Running an airline is not just playing with planes only - there are a lot of other things to consider.

 

Airbus and Boeing may delay in delivery of new model but historically, new generation of aircraft improved in performance and operation efficiency. Even if actual numbers may not meet design but is still significantly better than existing models. A350 and 787 is evolution not revolution of existing technology, the chance for them to fail, to worst off than current model is negligible.

[Josh T 0]

Is there a Mistake for the date of delivery of the A380? Wasn't it meant to be April 2011?

 

Also I seriously doubt the A330 would be able to do KUL-AKL return.

The A330NG can probably do KUL-AKL. JQ is planning to fly the A330 from SIN to AKL...although that's the 332 rather than the 333.

[flee 5]

Airbus and Boeing may delay in delivery of new model but historically, new generation of aircraft improved in performance and operation efficiency. Even if actual numbers may not meet design but is still significantly better than existing models. A350 and 787 is evolution not revolution of existing technology, the chance for them to fail, to worst off than current model is negligible.

You are just looking at the planes, and not the whole business operations. Whilst I agree that new aircraft tend to have better performance and economics, MH also has other things to consider - e.g. MRO operations and staff retraining and certification. Financing terms for aircraft differ. Price tags also differ. So the aircraft cost is only one part of the equation. There are other associated costs that go with the choice of aircraft too. Perhaps that partly explains why the PW4000 engine was chosen for the A330-300 and A330-200F orders this year.

 

The A330NG can probably do KUL-AKL. JQ is planning to fly the A330 from SIN to AKL...although that's the 332 rather than the 333.

According to Airbus the following are the range limits of aircraft:

 

A330-200 - 12,500 km

A330-300 - 10,500 km

[Josh T 0]

You are just looking at the planes, and not the whole business operations. Whilst I agree that new aircraft tend to have better performance and economics, MH also has other things to consider - e.g. MRO operations and staff retraining and certification. Financing terms for aircraft differ. Price tags also differ. So the aircraft cost is only one part of the equation. There are other associated costs that go with the choice of aircraft too. Perhaps that partly explains why the PW4000 engine was chosen for the A330-300 and A330-200F orders this year.

 

 

According to Airbus the following are the range limits of aircraft:

 

A330-200 - 12,500 km

A330-300 - 10,500 km

KUL to AKL is about 8750km, so definitely doable with the A333NG.

The A332 can easily fly to Europe. Rome and Frankfurt are about 10000km.

Edited September 21, 2010 by Josh T

[Mohd Azizul Ramli 2]

A lot has been said about the A380s that is going to replace the B744s. And there's a mentioned that the new A333 will be taking over the mission to South Africa (in this case, I believe it refers to JNB). But how about KUL-CPT-EZE? Can the new A333 do CPT-EZE because the B772 can't do it for sure due to ETOPS requirement.

 

In reply #5, flee mentioned that 3 A380s are needed to do KUL-LHR twice daily, while 2 A380s are needed to do KUL-SYD twice daily, leaving 1 spare A380. Could this spare A380 be used for CPT-EZE since its frequency is only 2 weekly thus doable with 1 A380? Or MH will still keep a few B744s just for this route?

 

Another theory of mine is that, the spare A380 will do AMS on a maybe 4 out of the 7 weekly service. The rest will still be served by the B744s.

 

So the B744s will still be around when the A380s come online.