flee

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W81IWIK4SdE&feature=player_embedded The Airbus A380 made its scheduled service debut at a "regional" airport yesterday, when Emirates began operating to Manchester from its Dubai hub. More than 10,000 spectators travelled to the airport to witness the aircraft's arrival. The airport will be served daily by the 517-seater. The A380's first return service to Dubai on 1 September broke Manchester's record for the largest number of passengers ever to depart on a scheduled flight. "We've invested around £10 million to upgrade the airport's infrastructure to accommodate the flagship of the Emirates fleet," says Manchester airport managing director Andrew Cornish. Source: http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2010/09/02/346883/video.html

Bandung airport runway length at 2,244m, is for some reason (maybe it is at 740+m altitude), not capable of taking bigger jets like the A320 with full load - that is why QZ still had to retain the old B733s whereas FD has gotten rid of all of them. MH operates the B734 into BDO.

I think they want to join from a position of strength as they want to dictate terms of joining. This kind of thinking is flawed and was responsible for Proton's failure to have an alliance with Volkswagen. It seems that Malaysian GLCs keep thinking that they are God's gift to their partners. If they had approached it from the point of win-win alliance, I am sure that they would have joined one long ago.

Disclaimer: This is my personal speculation only and you may take it as a hypothetical situation at AirAsia. Lately I detect that AirAsia is run on a flight by flight basis. It would seem to me that all their flights must be profitable before they are allowed to take off. As such many pax are experiencing cancellations and are put on alternative flights that are not really convenient. This is also happening on AirAsia X and it is upsetting their most loyal customers in Australia. The signs are there too - AK postponing A320 deliveries (twice for aircraft scheduled to arrive in 2010) is another sign that their finances are not all that great. It also indicates that they don't have enough pax to fill their aircraft profitably. AirAsia X now has a spanking new A333 stored at Airbus, waiting for financing to be completed. They are not too bothered with the delay. Could it be that they can't utilise the new aircraft due to lack of bookings? In his tweets, Tony Fernandes has often mentioned pushing up ancillary income. He also wants to charge for calls to the call centre - often forgetting that people already have to pay Telescum call charges for holding on for hours. The above points would indicate that AirAsia is desperate to increase its income. So charging for counter check in should not surprise anyone. As the saying goes, the customer is always right. If you don't like what AirAsia is doing, then your best sanction is not to fly with them. When business is down, they should know that customers are not happy.

Delivery delays also cause loss of profits - what good is a new fuel efficient plane design if you can't have it in commercial service? More airlines are changing their B787 plans... Kenya Airways threatens to ditch 787 for Airbus Kenya Airways' irritation over delays to the Boeing 787 programme has evolved into a threat to cancel the aircraft it has on order. The flag carrier had already said, during its review of the last financial year, which ended in March, that the hold-up to the 787 was a "major challenge" for the airline. Kenya Airways ordered six 787-8s in March 2006 and, nine months later, followed this with an order for another three. The first of the aircraft had originally been scheduled to arrive this year. At the time that Kenya placed its initial order, the Dreamliner was due to enter service with launch customer All Nippon Airways in mid-2008, but this has slipped by almost three years. Following the latest delay announced in August it is not now due until early 2011. The result is that most 787 customers have suffered delays of at least two years to their first delivery. Kenya Airways says it is considering cancelling its 787 order and is "looking into negotiations with Airbus". In its end-of-year review Kenya Airways had already disclosed that it was considering the Airbus A330 as a back-up option, alongside the extension of its Boeing 767 leases or the acquisition of newer 767s. The airline says its threat to drop the 787 is "serious" and that the carrier intends to make a decision by the end of the year. Boeing has suffered a series of 787 order cancellations over the past 18 months, although no customer is believed to have specifically blamed their move on the programme delays. Air China has converted its order for 15 787-8s to the 787-9 stretch variant, and expects to take delivery of the new aircraft from the end of 2015. The 787-9 will be a better fit for the airline in terms of seat capacity, performance and economy, says China's flag carrier. Air China placed its 787 order in 2005 and had originally expected deliveries to start in mid-2008. Source: http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2010/09/01/346868/kenya-airways-threatens-to-ditch-787-for-airbus.html

I think it would be real interesting to see how Firefly develops in the next 2 or 3 years. Logically, FY should be assisting MH fight off the competition. However, its business model should be clearcut (e.g. like how AirAsia and AirAsia X carves out their routes) so that they do not overlap. Defining the business models clearly will ensure that FY does not actually compete against MH!

Pictures have emerged of the damaged Rolls-Royce RB211 engine on a Qantas Airlines Boeing 747-400 that experienced an uncontained engine failure on departure from the San Francisco International airport en route to Sydney late Monday night. According to news reports, flight tracking and air traffic control communications from FlightAware.com and LiveATC,net, the aircraft was climbing through 25,000ft (7,620m) approximately 20 minutes after departure when it experienced the problem. Passengers described a loud bang followed by vibrations and sparks. The pilots did not initially declare an emergency and would not provide details of the engine problem when queried by air traffic control, according to air traffic control conversations. After dumping fuel over the Pacific ocean and descending for an approach back at San Francisco, the pilots did declare an emergency however. One of the pilots onboard Flight 74, with 212 passengers and 18 crew onboard, later told ground controllers that there had been severe damage to the number 4 engine, and that a large amount of sparking continued even after the engine had been shut down. None of the passengers or crew were injured. More here: http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2010/08/31/346831/pictures-qantas-747-uncontained-engine-failure.html And here: http://news.ninemsn.com.au/world/7954137/qantas-engine-explodes-mid-air Liveatc.net audio: http://archive-server.liveatc.net/ksfo/ZOA-SFO-Aug-31-2010-0630Z.mp3

Some news from MH CEO: Malaysian Airline System Bhd, the national carrier, is open to joining a global airline alliance and believes closer cooperation with SkyTeam members would be “beneficial,” Chief Executive Officer Tengku Azmil Zahruddin said in an email to Bloomberg today. Members of the Skyteam aviation alliance include Delta Air Lines Inc. and Air France-KLM. “We are able to offer SkyTeam a major hub in Asia,” Tengku Azmil said. -- Bloomberg

That is why people must no longer look at how much the fares are. They should look at the bottom line to compare costs. The general "rule" is: If you are not able to plan your trip at least 6 months in advance, then it is better to use a full service legacy airline as their total cost is not that much more than what AirAsia charges. Legacy airlines may even be cheaper sometimes, if you manage to catch their promo or sale fares...

I think they are pushing for their ancillary income to increase - so they are trying to find new sources of income. Yes, I think soon web check in will also become chargeable, if a lot of users opt not to pay for counter check in. AK flight cancellations and consolidation is also on the rise. This is how they can boost their load factors and they are rather aggressive on this so that they don't have to fly half empty aircraft. So it looks like they don't mind being like Ryanair so long as they can attract and grow their customer base.

If you study the satellite image so kindly provided by Azizul above, you will see that the KLIA 2 is situated in between one of the old runways (14R/32L) and the proposed new runway. This would be ideal for minimum taxi distance to and from the runway - vital for low cost operations as they don't want to burn too much fuel going to and from the runways. The new third runway will be the same length (4,000m) as the existing ones. KLIA2 is optimised for low cost carrier operations, not just AirAsia alone. However, it has received a lot of input from AirAsia because of their hard earned experience in low cost operations. In fact, AirAsia is helping MAHB to make KLIA2 more attractive to other low cost carriers as the terminal is optimised for low cost of operations, thus enabling MAHB to lower its fees for airlines operating out of KLIA2.

I think his scepticism is justified, as MAHB have already said that the third runway will be delayed. That is also why they are again extending the current LCCT to handle more pax. In their quarterly report, they also mentioned that they will make more use of KCH, BKI, PEN and LGK soon. So maybe they will send more planes to those airports.

Interesting comment in A.Net re CX's intention to buy used SQ aircraft: And someone actually replied: So there is more than one way for an airline to make money. It does not always need to have the latest and most up to date fuel efficient airplane...

MAHB should consider offering a plane towing (to and from terminal to runway) service. Some fuel savings can be achieved by not running the jet engines while taxiing to and from the runways. MAHB can make this service available and bundle it with the airbridge service as one package and charge a "convenience fee" for it. Aerobridge Alright If Package Is Good, SEPANG, Aug 30 (Bernama) -- AirAsia will consider using the proposed aerobridge at the upcoming low cost carrier terminal (LCCT) or KLIA 2 if a good package, combining its use and low fares can be achieved, says AirAsia Group Chief Executive Officer Datuk Seri Dr Tony Fernandes. "If the airport (MAHB) gives a good package, we will consider it. The key thing is you wouldn't have got 30 million passengers without low fares. "Of course you want to give customers everything, low fares, aerobridges, but it won't exist if you have high charges. "If they can give a deal that makes economic sense and allow us to operate also in the 25-minute turnaround time, it would be great," he told reporters at the sideline of the KLIA 2 ground breaking ceremony here Monday. "I am not close to the idea of aerobridges but ultimately our passengers comes first. "If you ask everyone out there what would you like, low fares or much higher fares with aerobridges, you know what the answer would be. If you can find solution for both, then great," he said. Meanwhile, talking to reporters earlier, Managing Director of MAHB Tan Sri Bashir Ahmad Abdul Majid said MAHB would need a firm commitment from the carriers on the use of the proposed aerobridge, adding that it would be in the interest of passenger comfort and safety to use it. "We have given them options. And what we want is a firm commitment very soon from the low cost carrier that they want to make use of the aerobridge and upon that we will install the facilities," he added. According to MAHB, its aerobridge charges of RM85 is probably the lowest in the world. Tony also said it would be important to have good rail to open up for tourism. KLIA 2 is expected to be completed in April 2012.

SEPANG, Aug 30 (Bernama) -- The new Low Cost Carrier Terminal (LCCT) or KLIA 2, which had an initial budget of RM2 billion, may likely incur extra cost due to possible delays, says Malaysia Airports Holdings Bhd (MAHB). Construction of the LCCT has taken a longer period as it is being undertaken on the basis of a tender exercise. "Let's wait for the tender exercises to complete. The balance are minor tenders not major ones," MAHB Managing Director, Tan Sri Bashir Ahmad Abdul Majid, told reporters after the ground breaking ceremony for KLIA 2 here Monday. Earlier this month, MAHB had proposed to undertake sukuk programmes up to RM3.1 billion to part finance the construction of the KLIA 2 and to refinance its existing borrowings. KLIA 2 is slated to be ready by April 2012 based on a 20 month construction period, and would be bigger than previously planned - an increase of 60 per cent in terminal size. The new 242,000 sqm terminal which is primarily planned and designed to meet the requirements of low cost carriers would be the largest purpose build dedicated terminal for low cost carriers in the world. Built to handle initially 30 million passengers, it will have the flexibility to allow expansion to cater for future growth and changes to the operational models of airlines, Bashir said. Asked on the completion of the earthworks for the runway that is behind schedule, he said it is targeted to be ready in two to three months upon the completion of the KLIA 2. "We are working very closely with the contractor and will try to find ways to expedite. It's a delay but not so much," he said On the proposed aerobridges, he said MAHB needed a firm commitment very soon from the carriers on the use of aerobridges, adding that it was of the view that airlines should use aerobridges in the interest of passenger comfort and safety. "We have given them options. And what we want is a firm commitment very soon from the low cost carrier that they want to make use of the aerobridges and upon that we will install the facilities," he added. According to MAHB, its aerobridge charges of RM85 is probably the lowest in the world and low cost carriers were beginning to see the need for using aerobridges. He also said MAHB has planned for an express rail link station. A joint venture between UEM Construction Sdn Bhd and Bina Puri Holdings Bhd would build the terminal.

KLIA2 to cost more than RM2 billion, delayed till 2012 SEPANG, Aug 30 – Malaysia Airports Holding Berhad managing director Tan Sri Bashir Ahmad announced today that the completion of KLIA’s new low-cost carrier terminal (LCCT) will be delayed to April 2012. The LCCT or KLIA2, originally estimated to cost RM2 billion, was slated to be ready the end of this year. However Bashir (picture) said that most of the major work awarded is already worth RM2 billion. “Although the tender exercise took longer than expected due to the overwhelming response from tender participants, this has enabled us to obtain very competitive bids. A rigorous value engineering exercise was also carried out to optimise the cost of the various packages. Forty packages were identified. To date most of the major works have been awarded at the value of RM2 billion. The remaining packages will be awarded in due course,” he said. MORE TO COME : http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/business/article/klia2-to-cost-more-than-rm2-billion-delayed-till-2012/

New LCCT to be called KLIA2 SEPANG, Aug 30 – Datuk Seri Najib Razak said today that the new low cost carrier terminal (LCCT) or KLIA2 will serve as an economic stimulus for the country. The Prime Minister said he expects KLIA2 to boost tourism revenue to RM168 billion by 2020. “The construction of a project such as this new terminal brings the country many benefits. Not only will it serve as an economic stimulus by providing job opportunities to the people of Malaysia, it will also boost tourism by attracting more airlines and visitors into the country. “This facility will greatly enhance our vision to increase tourism revenue from the current RM53 billion in 2009 to RM168 billion by 2020,” he said during his speech at the ground breaking ceremony for KLIA2. He said that local businesses would also benefit from the greater influx of tourists into the country. “The spill-over effects of having this captive market at our airports is immense, from a commercial perspective, following the footsteps of the established successful airports such as Heathrow London and Schiphol Amersterdam where the airports are much more than just a place to catch flights. “Malaysia Airports has envisioned our own airports as the platform to drive commercial business. With its vision to be a world-class airport business, I am encouraged to know that besides operating top notch airport facilities and services, there will also be ample retail and commerce opportunities that will allow Malaysian businesses to capitalise and benefit from the influx of tourists and spending power flowing continuously through the arrival and departure gates,” he said. The targeted completion date for the new LCCT, estimated to cost RM2 billion, is April 2012 based on a 20-month construction period. The LCCT will be able to cater for 30 million passengers per annum, with potential to expand to 45 million. A new four kilometre long runway will also be built for the LCCT. To be known as KLIA2, it is located only two kilometre from the main KLIA terminal. Najib also noted that AirAsia was the driving force behind low-cost travel growth in the region. “Over the last 10 years low-cost travel at KLIA has grown on an average of 37 per cent per annum. The double-digit growth is expected to continue for the next five to ten years despite intense competition from other large airports in the region. “I have to compliment AirAsia for their innovative efforts to stimulate low-cost travel in the country and I applaud Malaysia Airport’s role in supporting the growth of this burgeoning travel segment. Malaysia Airports has anticipated that KLIA as whole would handle over 60 million passengers by 2020 and close to 45 per cent of these passengers are likely to be low-cost travellers,” he said. Early last year, there was a much publicised tussle between Malaysia Airports Holdings Berhad (MAHB), the operator of most of Malaysia’s airports, and Air Asia, the region’s leading low-cost carrier, to build the new LCCT. That was just after Air Asia announced its intentions to build its own terminal and runway in Labu, Negeri Sembilan to cope with soaring passenger volume and alleged that MAHB would not be able to build an LCCT to suit its needs and ambitions. Malaysia Airports on the other hand, said that the new LCCT should be built according to its masterplan for KLIA. The Labu proposal was initially given the green light on January 5th by the government, but it reversed its decision about three weeks later after a public outcry erupted as it was seen as building another airport just a few kilometres away from KLIA and thus duplicating resources. Najib stressed that KLIA2 was designed with consideration for AirAsia’s requirements. “I am glad to note that while this new terminal is designed with great consideration for the requirements of the region’s largest low-cost carrier, AirAsia, it will be accessible to all airlines upon completion. With the thriving low cost travel in the region, the new terminal is poised to serve as a hub and attract more low cost carriers to fly to Kuala Lumpur,” he said. The first phase of the project was awarded to Malaysian infrastructure firm, WCT. The RM363 million contract is for the earthworks and drainage job for the LCCT. However, MAHB has admitted that the completion of the earthworks for the runaway is behind schedule. MAHB will also build a multi-modal transportation hub for buses, taxis, and ERL to provide connectivity for not only passengers but also for the public to move from one part of the country to another. According to the National Airport Masterplan (NAMP), there is room for two additional terminals near the LCCT. The masterplan was drawn up by Netherlands Airport Consultants BV and KLIA Consultancy Services. Source: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/business/article/klias-new-terminal-will-serve-as-economic-stimulus-najib/

Problem is MH probably does not see renting simulator time as ancillary income, hence the pedestrian pace of the simulator installation and commissioning.

Sri Ramani, do u know how many A320s are now based in BKI these days?

Lack of production engine for Airplane Nine drives 787 delay The lack of availability of Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 engines for Airplane Nine in the 787 programme, Boeing's third production aircraft and the first of the commercial fleet scheduled to fly, is main driver for the programme's latest delay. "We need to get an engine for Airplane Nine so we can do [extended twin engine operations] ETOPS testing," says Jim Albaugh, Boeing Commercial Airplanes president and chief executive officer. The shortage of Trent 1000 engines extends to subsequent aircraft, including Airplane Seven, the first 787 slated for delivery to launch customer All Nippon Airways, now pushed into the middle of the first quarter of 2011 from the fourth quarter of 2010. In addition to ETOPS testing, Airplane Nine was scheduled to participate in systems functionality and reliability testing at the end of the third quarter, continuing into the fourth quarter. Five of Boeing's six flight test aircraft, excluding ZA001, were set to participate in ETOPS testing during the planned 3,100h flight test campaign. Neither Boeing nor Rolls-Royce are offering details on the future of the Package A engine build, though it is now confirmed that the 2 August failure occurred on a version of that engine slated to power Airplane Nine. Package A engines are set to power the first several 787s for ANA, before switching to Package B for an improvement in fuel consumption to within 1% of original specification. Rolls-Royce is seeking to distance itself from the uncontained failure. "We have been informed by Boeing that the currently planned dates for Trent 1000 engine deliveries will not support their latest flight test programme requirements. We are working closely with Boeing to expedite delivery in support of their programme schedule," says the engine maker, indirectly suggesting a shift to the left of Boeing's timelines was unachievable. However, Rolls-Royce emphasises "the engine availability issue is unrelated to the test bed event which occurred earlier this month". What remains unclear from all parties involved is in what way the failure was related to the delay, yet by all outward appearances the failure prompted Boeing's "assessment of the availability of an engine needed for the final phases of flight test this fall". Boeing's 787 programme has been beset by nearly three years of delays. Source: http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2010/08/28/346766/lack-of-production-engine-for-airplane-nine-drives-787.html

Another reason why MAS chose to order "old" planes like the A330. At least they know when it will be delivered - delivery delays are a luxury that MH cannot afford as its old fleet is overdue for replacement. So that is why "paper aeroplanes" like the B787/A350 cannot be considered at the moment. I dare say that once the initial and most urgent replacements are procured MH will have more breathing space and can then look at the latest tech jets like the B787/A350. New, high tech aircraft are pioneering a lot of new technologies and it is not surprising that we have seen delays in the last few new generation aircraft. That is why Boeing and Airbus are baulking at bring all new designs to replace their cash cows, the B737 and A320 families. They have to get that 100% right and on schedule. Otherwise, they might bankrupt themselves!

Boeing Sets 787 First Delivery Date for Mid-First Quarter 2011 EVERETT, Wash., Aug. 27 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- The Boeing (NYSE: BA) Company said today that it now expects delivery of the first 787 in the middle of the first quarter 2011. The delivery date revision follows an assessment of the availability of an engine needed for the final phases of flight test this fall. While Boeing works closely with Rolls-Royce to expedite engine availability, flight testing across the test fleet continues as planned. Boeing said last month that the cumulative impact of a series of issues, including supplier workmanship issues related to the horizontal stabilizer and instrumentation delays, could push first delivery of the 787 a few weeks into 2011. The delay in engine availability has extended that estimate to mid-first quarter 2011. The schedule revision will not affect the company's financial guidance.

Frankly I think it is time that Tony Fernandes is not so hung up on this aerobridge thingy. And MAHB should reap a publicity coup if they announce that aerobridge will be offered at zero cost to the airlines. This is because with the gold mine that is in the LCCT (high rental income retail lots) it would easily recoup any aerobridge costs rather quickly! So I hope that MAHB will not miss the opportunity to build a world class LCCT and Tony Fernandes can dump his outdated views that aerobridges slow down aircraft turnaround times.

Singapore budget carrier Tiger Airways caused something of a stir when chief executive Tony Davis, along with key shareholders Indigo Singapore Partners and Ryanasia Limited, sold 40 per cent of their share holdings in the airline soon after the announcement of its alliance with Thai Airways International to set up Thai Tiger Airways. In reaction, Thai Airways executive vice-president Chokchai Panyayong said: "We have to admit that it's something we never knew before. Now our finance department is looking at more details and considering if the change will affect our plan to set up a new carrier with Tiger." That concern is likely to pass as a ripple of undue caution as budget carrier euphoria spreads across Asia. Following the Thai Tiger announcement, All Nippon Airways said it was seeking a foreign airline partner to chase the same rainbow. The obvious trigger is the booming popularity of regional budget air travel, which is expected to grow from today's 20 per cent of market share to 35 per cent by 2015 when Asean open skies is fully implemented. What has been especially compelling is the growing competition posed by low-cost carriers to full-service airlines. Budget carriers are flying farther and, increasingly, seeking to fly where full-service airlines operate, no longer confined to remote destinations by-passed by the bigger carriers. The result is that full-service airlines no longer enjoy market exclusivity. Air Asia X paved the way for long haul operations, flying from Kuala Lumpur to London's Stansted airport. Jetstar is competing with parent Qantas, Singapore Airlines and Emirates flying between Singapore and Melbourne. Thai Airways - which already owns domestic budget carrier Nok Air - bets on Thai Tiger to check its loss of regional market share. Its president, Mr Piyasavasti Amranand, said: "We believe this move will provide opportunities for Thai (Airways) and allow (it) to be more competitive in the region." He added: "If we don't do anything, our market share will decline further." ANA too is concerned about the growing competition from Chinese and Southeast Asian low-cost carriers. This is where the budget business game changes - when full-service airlines decide to drive the competition to protect their turf, albeit through subsidiary discount carriers which claim to be independent of their parents. The game has moved from inter-budget carrier competition to competition across the board. The new mantra for air travel is cost-driven. The market is losing its clear demarcation between full-service and budget as consumers become less conscious of the segmentation. The choice is not between budget and full-service, but airlines that offer the best deal. Qantas chief executive Alan Joyce did not hide his ambition for Jetstar when he announced structural changes at the budget carrier recently. He said: "This will ensure we are well placed to successfully expand our footprint to new markets throughout Asia." While some experts have questioned the wisdom of Qantas and Jetstar competing with each other on some routes, it is a strategy of staking an additional share of the pie as more players enter the fray, so as not to suffer a complete outflow of the business as it shifts downward from premium to other more economic alternatives. Keep it within the family, that is. Yet this is not new in the history of aviation. American and European full-service airlines have spawned budget off-shoots which they subsequently sold, shut down or absorbed back into the parent company. Examples include Ted by United Airlines, Song by Delta Airlines, Tango and later Zip by Air Canada, Go by British Airways, and Snowflake by Scandinavian Airlines System. There's also a plethora of defunct independent budget carriers. So, is the Asian budget carrier bubble at risk of bursting as it swells? There are upsides - the economic recovery, more liberal open skies policies, the geography of the region that makes air connection almost necessary, accessibility to hitherto remote locations, new short-haul tourist attractions such as Singapore's integrated resorts, and the growing travel markets in India and China as the economies shift from one that is primarily product-based to one that is increasingly service-driven. There are downsides too - the uncertainty of rising fuel costs, disruptions caused by pilot shortages and market saturation despite the optimistic growth forecasts. But the biggest risk is that of biting off more than one can chew. The long-haul is untested ground for budget carriers and demands a different business model. It is too early to assess the success of Air Asia X. Hong Kong's Oasis Airlines and Macau's Viva Macau Airlines tried and failed. These airlines, however, could not boast the parentage that Air Asia X had in Air Asia - a budget carrier itself, but Asia's largest and most successful - and Jetstar had in Qantas. A more pertinent point is how these parent airlines would change the competitive landscape for budget carriers. It is likely a few of them will grow stronger and larger as the attrition of numbers begins. The writer is a management consultant. Source: http://www.todayonline.com/Commentary/EDC100826-0000062/Full-service-airlines-change-the-budget-carrier-game

From The Star: http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2010/8/26/business/6920079&sec=business PETALING JAYA: While airlines in Malaysia are seeing strong forward bookings for the second half of 2010, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) has warned that growth in the aviation sector will slow as consumer demand remains weak. The association released its monthly statistics for July yesterday showing a growth from a year ago for international passenger traffic of 9.2% and air freight 22.7%. These figures were, however, lower than that recorded a month earlier with international passenger traffic at 11.9% and air freight at 26.5%. “The recovery in demand has been faster than anticipated, but as we look toward the end of the year the pace of the recovery will likely slow. “The jobless economic recovery is keeping consumer confidence fragile, particularly in North America and Europe. This affects the leisure markets and cargo traffic,” IATA director general and chief executive Giovanni Bisignani said in a statement. But the four local airlines are not so worried about the second half. Their forward bookings are strong, at least that was what the bosses are saying. AirAsia Bhd group chief executive officer Datuk Seri Tony Fernandes said the second-half bookings for this year were ahead of last year. For 2009 the airline load factor was 83%. “The second half is very strong. In fact, our traffic for Ramadhan is the best ever in our 9-year history. This goes to show globalisation of the AirAsia business that does not rely on the domestic market. We carry traffic from all over be it China, Europe and other markets. “All our brand and network building efforts are also paying off. Even in a recession we record growth, so in good and bad times we will still benefit,” Fernandes told StarBiz. But IATA said Asian carriers outperformed the industry average with a 10.9% growth for July. The Asian carriers are slated to lead the industry’s recovery and IATA has predicted that the Asian carriers would report US$2.2bil in profit this year. The Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA) also released its numbers saying that the Asia Pacific-based airlines carried a record 17.2 million international passengers in July, 20.4% up from the same month last year. The better loads were boosted by particularly strong demand on busy regional routes. Even AAPA was cautious over the outlook of the sector. It said the very high growth rates recorded in recent months, as a result of the surprisingly sharp V-shaped recovery, would obviously taper off as the economy stabilises and reverts to a more normal pattern of growth. “Asia Pacific airlines are generally well placed to benefit from the improving business environment, and are making some measured additions to capacity and selective expansion of their route networks, although continuing uncertainties about the prospects for further growth in North America and Europe suggest a measure of caution,” its director-general Andrew Herdman said. AirAsia X CEO Azran Osman-Rani said the long haul low cost carriers’ forward bookings for second half were also “much better than the first half.” In 2009, AirAsia X’s average load factor was 77%. “Bookings for Melbourne, Perth and Taipei are strong, London is picking up and we are seeing strong sales for Seoul even though we are launching the route only in November. Loads to Tehran which only has twice weekly flights are about 80%,” Azran said. Firefly managing director Datuk Eddy Leong said the airline’s forward booking were typically very short due to the nature of the routes they fly and passengers they care. “So far the trend is very postiive and upwards even during Ramadhan,’’ Leong said. MAS senior general manager sales and marketing Datuk Bernard Francis said forward bookings for the second half had improved by 10%-15% from a year ago. MAS’ average seat factor for the third and fourth quarters in 2009 was 76.7% and 76.5% respectively. “The bookings are looking good and passenger traffic growing and we expect December to be an exceptionally good month,” Bernard said. While the Malaysian carriers are seeing strong passenger forward bookings, fuel remains a concern and since aviation was a cyclical business whatever happens globally would have an impact on the airlines. While the local carriers are doing well, in Singapore, Tiger Airways was undertaking some route cuts for its domestic operations in Australia due to slow demand, competition and the lack of pilots to fly its aircraft. It is also not so rosy for two budget carriers in the United Arab Emirates. Air Arabia suspended its services while Sama Airlines grounded its fleet as the airline was running out of cash.