China's Comac - a threat to Boeing and Airbus

[Cire 0]

Chinese airframer Comac will be the biggest threat to Boeing and Airbus and most likely to succeed in developing a program comparable to those offered by the duopoly, says Jim Albaugh, president of Boeing Commercial Airplanes.

Speaking at the Aviation Club of the U.K. on Thursday, Albaugh said Boeing and Airbus face competition from Canada, Brazil and China, but that “I don’t believe all of them are going to be successful. My guess is one of them will emerge and become a very good competitor for us, and I won’t be surprised if it was China.”

Albaugh supports his view by noting China’s $5 billion commitment to developing its regional jet, which he says may never be certified, and a further $30 billion for the C919 narrowbody program. “If that’s going to be the airplane or not, I don’t know, but eventually, they will get it right,” said the Boeing executive.

He suspects Comac initially will sell aircraft in China and countries with close links to the country, but eventually will have a product that can compete with Airbus and Boeing offerings.

Albaugh, however, is less concerned with competition from Brazil, noting that Embraer has decided to focus on the regional jet market. With Bombardier’s CSeries, however, he is less emphatic, noting, “With Bombardier, you have to assume they’re going to do what they say they’re going to do,” he said, adding, “Competition is a great thing. Airbus coming along made Boeing a better company. And Comac will make both Boeing and Airbus better at what we do.”

China’s emergence comes as established aerospace markets like the U.S. and the U.K. reduce their investment in research and development to their lowest levels in decades, says Albaugh, noting that China has tripled its investment in technology and people in the past decade.

“What are you going to do with all these emerging threats? The answer is simple: You have to evolve the airplane and produce more value for the customer. The things that Willie Walsh [CEO of International Airlines Group] and others want is fuel efficiency, environmentally friendly aircraft and low maintenance costs,” Albaugh added.

Boeing’s product strategy is to evolve the 737 for the third time, says Albaugh, and to continue developing the 787. The airframer also is considering a 757 replacement, but for now the 737 MAX achieves 95% of the missions assigned to the larger narrowbody.

Albaugh also says Boeing is taking a hard look at its 777 program, however, he notes that “the question is when [to redevelop]. We are working with customers to find out what their needs are and getting the configuration right.”

[S V Choong 4]

So here we go, company A, company B and now we have company C?

[Cire 0]

It is just a matter of time for the Chinese to catch up in the aviation industry and be a global competitor. Their technologies may still lack some how currently but given their determinations and "everything is possible" attitude, they won't be too far off.

[flee 5]

COMAC and UAC

 

Mr Putin’s visit to China was busy. The two nations signed 17 deals. One deal attracted our attention.

 

United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) and COMAC signed a memorandum of understanding on manufacture of a wide-body long-range aircraft. A Russian report states the cooperation effort will center on the IL-96.

 

Russia will supply the IP and China the cash. But here’s the really important part – production will be located in China. China already has an Airbus factory producing four A320s per month. Airbus says the Chinese A320s match the quality of EU-built A320s. Air Asia will take delivery of the first export from the China factory in December.

 

China has experience with aircraft manufacturing. It has done deals with Embraer and McDonnell Douglas. These were not too successful. The Chinese got what they wanted though. Chinese firms also sub contract for Boeing and Bombardier. China has proven adept at learning aerospace technology – the Sukhoi fighter order that was cut as it developed a local version of the same fighter underscores this. Russia was not pleased with this. Yet Russia signed a deal on cooperating on a long range airplane.

 

With the factory in China, the Chinese will be doing the work and learning how to build a large airliner. China has tried this before, with their Y-10 suspiciously looking like a 707. And the ARJ21 has a heritage that is tough to hide. China is determined to acquire the skills and has proven with the A320 it has the ability to build a modern high quality product. How good this latest deal is for the Russians is an open question.

 

Source: http://airinsight.com/2012/06/06/comac-and-uac/#more-4335

[S V Choong 4]

"everything is possible" attitude, they won't be too far off.

 

Ah that familiar "can do attitude". How does that compare to the "Malaysia Boleh" attitude?

 

The Russians are really behind on aircraft manufacturing nowadays. Their Sukhoi superjet is heavily depended on Western technology and avionics. I seriously don't know what the Chinese got to learn from them, may be getting the basics right and get the design off the ground perhaps. It is sad that the Chinese has only the Russians to rely on, as the west pretty much sanctioned the access of technology away from the Chinese, while allowing the Russians the access to their technology.

 

The Chinese might have a can do attitude to match with their cash. However, they still lack the refining and creative sophistication that produce out of things on their own without copying others.

Edited June 7, 2012 by S V Choong

[Timothy 1]

Ah that familiar "can do attitude". How does that compare to the "Malaysia Boleh" attitude?

 

The Russians are really behind on aircraft manufacturing nowadays. Their Sukhoi superjet is heavily depended on Western technology and avionics. I seriously don't know what the Chinese got to learn from them, may be getting the basics right and get the design off the ground perhaps. It is sad that the Chinese has only the Russians to rely on, as the west pretty much sanctioned the access of technology away from the Chinese, while allowing the Russians the access to their technology.

 

The Chinese might have a can do attitude to match with their cash. However, they still lack the refining and creative sophistication that produce out of things on their own without copying others.

 

You'll be suprised how many Malaysians are within Airbus, Gulfsteam or even Lockheed Martin ! Did my internship with Airbus in Filton and there were enough Malaysians there to start an unofficial "Malaysian Soc" with around 60 of us engineers.

 

The Chinese are mostly lacking in engine technology, imho the most complicated part of a plane.

 

As for criticizing "china products" one just has to look at how fast they reach the market. They don't spend years and years fielding a new phone. There's little bureaucracy (or quality checks:P) but that was the way it was with Western countries back in the 1920's . You made a contraception and tried to sell it asap.

 

With the cash China is dishing out, I won't surprised when "Made in China" is a mark of quality.

[S V Choong 4]

Well I have no doubt they will eventually get it right. Not criticising Chinese product in the harshest possible way but they still need the time and R&D.

 

Japanese cars - when they started out in the international market was a laughing stock in the 1960 or 70s when American and British cars dominates. After years of learning, product and design matching, research and development, the Japanese have literally out done the Americans and British in the automotive industry. Today Japan continues to dominate in terms of sales.

 

It is understandable why the West is not keen to give China the technology as they have done to the Taiwanese, Korean and Japanese....

[flee 5]

I think that political ideology is also at play here. China, is still not a free society and they still jail dissenting citizens without respecting their human rights.

 

It would not be politcally correct for western politicians to be seen supporting an oppressive regime.

[BC Tam 2]

You made a contraception and tried to sell it asap.

The bestest version of that is free (and devoid of any effort) - abstention

 

It would not be politcally correct for western politicians to be seen supporting an oppressive regime.

They may not want to be seen doing that

But behind the puppet play there will be plenty of wheelings and dealings irrespective, as long as there is money to be made

[S V Choong 4]

They may not want to be seen doing that

But behind the puppet play there will be plenty of wheelings and dealings irrespective, as long as there is money to be made

Yep, BC had summed it up nicely here. These guys wouldn't care about the life of people in general, they only want to a reason or an excuse to tag along their ambitions.

 

I am more concern about the package which came with an authoritarian regime, lack of transparency and so forth.

[xtemujin 0]

Wing cracks, other flaws delay China jet manufacture

BEIJING, June 8 | Fri Jun 8, 2012 1:06pm IST

 

BEIJING, June 8 (Reuters) - When China set a goal to leap from being a tiny aerospace-industry player to a direct threat to Airbus and Boeing, few scoffed at the idea, given Beijing's track record of using deep government pockets to push state-owned firms up the ladder.

 

But as leaders of the global aerospace industry gather in Beijing for an International Air Transport Association meeting that kicks off on Sunday, a closer examination by Reuters shows that the potential challenge from China might be greatly overblown, and that its aircraft sector is unlikely to pose any credible competition for at least a decade.

 

To start with, a host of design flaws have delayed approval by the Civil Aviation Administration of China for the country's first homegrown passenger jet -- a 90-seat ARJ21 "regional" plane.

 

That in turn is likely to set back the country's bigger ambition, to dent Airbus and Boeing's global stronghold with a 737-sized airplane of its own.

In interviews with executives from three different technology suppliers working with Commercial Aircraft Corp of China (Comac) to develop passenger jets, Reuters has learned that various tests over the past two years have identified flaws in the ARJ21's wings, wiring and computer systems.

 

During a stress test in mid-2010, the wings of the ARJ21 broke, or "cracked" in one executive's description, before the pressure applied reached regulatory norms.

In further examinations conducted last year, the avionics system -- the brain of the plane -- failed at times to work properly, highlighting what one of the three suppliers executives described as a "system integration problem." Faults in the wiring were also discovered in those tests, according to the supplier executives.

 

The results of the tests have been rumoured among industry insiders, but the Shanghai-based aircraft maker has never spoken publicly about them.

 

"You should have seen the faces (of Comac engineers and executives)" said one of the three suppliers, who was at the 2010 test in a lab in the central Chinese city of Xi'an, speaking on condition of anonymity. "There was uncomfortable silence in the room."

 

Comac declined to comment on the matters raised in this report. But it said one version of the plane - the ARJ21-700 - completed a nearly two-hour test flight in February this year.

 

China's civil aviation regulator could not be reached for comment.

 

MORE TESTS

 

The ARJ21's troubles are more than a blow to Chinese pride. They highlight the country's struggle to become a producer of high-tech items from bullet trains to large commercial jetliners.

 

Indeed, recent experience shows that money does not guarantee success in high-tech industries. A rail accident in July 2011 killed 40 people, undermining China's portrayal of the rapid expansion of its high-speed railway network as a sign of its growing technological might.

 

Comac's plane, which was designed to compete with models from Canada's Bombardier Inc. and Embraer SA of Brazil, is undergoing more tests.

A Comac official said last month the ARJ21, which is central to Beijing's aerospace push, was unlikely to win regulatory approval before 2013, putting the project about five years behind its original schedule, without offering a reason.

 

The delays and difficulties are likely to set back Comac's larger ambition - to start delivering the 160-seat C919 jetliner by 2016, a timetable that would have put it on track by the second half of the decade to challenge Airbus and Boeing's dominance of the global market for large passenger aircraft.

 

"There is the very serious risk that by the time the C919 enters service (we think three years late is a good estimate), Airbus and Boeing are offering products that make this jet look obsolete," wrote Richard Aboulafia of U.S.-based consulting firm Teal Group Corp. in a research report.

 

"It would be wrong to dismiss a threat from any competitor, but it may have been wildly overblown" in the case of Comac, said a senior Boeing executive, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

 

Comac has never publicly explained the project's delays.

 

The firm's chief financial officer Tian Min told Reuters last month the company was still on track to gain certification for the C919 by 2016, as originally scheduled. He did not elaborate.

 

Securing regulatory approval for the C919 by 2016 would, in theory, give Comac a jump of about half a decade over Airbus and Boeing, which do not plan to launch completely redesigned A320 and B737 planes respectively until around 2020.

 

But the ARJ21's delay could squander that time advantage, since the effort to fix its problems would hinder the ability to design the C919 on schedule.

 

Also, the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration says it would not consider accepting China's certification for the C919 until it completes a technical pilot assessment of the capability of its Chinese counterpart to certify the ARJ21 to FAA's airworthiness requirements.

 

FAA certification, which is recognised globally, is critical if the C919 is to succeed in the international market.

 

NO FOCUS ON OTHERS

 

Rivals did not want to comment officially on Comac's problems.

 

Boeing does not "focus on others' issues but focuses on our customers, on our current products and on future product development," said Wang Yukui, a Beijing-based spokesman for Boeing.

 

Airbus said in a statement that "China has the resources and the ambition to design and build the C919 but must also demonstrate better performance, reliability, infrastructure, services and trust to match the well-established A320."

 

Most aerospace insiders already dismiss the ARJ21's threat to established global commercial jetliner producers. In the absence of cutting-edge equipment and systems built outside China that Comac failed to procure, "it has turned into an overweight and stunningly obsolete product that has no relevance outside of China's tiny regional airline sector," Teal Group's Aboulafia said in his research notes.

 

"The Chinese would like to remove it from the picture but they can't because it might be needed to help certify the C919," Aboulafia told Reuters.

Still, Airbus and Boeing have no choice but to take Comac seriously. China is one of the world's biggest markets for passenger jets, with demand estimated by Boeing to be around $480 billion over the next two decades.

 

The Western planemakers fear China's state-controlled airlines might be compelled to buy Comac aircraft rather than their own planes.

The senior Boeing official who spoke on condition of anonymity said the C919 "could still be a threat to Boeing and Airbus, if they are patient and design the airplane right and get it approved eventually."

 

Several suppliers in the U.S. and elsewhere are working on the C919 to help Comac come up with a competitive large jetliner. Those include CFM International Inc., a joint venture between GE and France's Snecma which won a $10 billion contract to make the Chinese plane's engines, as well as Rockwell Collins, Eaton Corp. and Honeywell .

 

One executive with a technology supplier said that in his experience in working with aircraft producers, the kind of delays Comac is now experiencing may be normal.

 

"You have to remember," he said, "Comac is building airplanes that they've never built before."

 

http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/06/08/airlines-china-comac-idINL4E8GV3BN20120608

Edited June 8, 2012 by xtemujin

[S V Choong 4]

IIRC, the ARJ21 has wings designed by a Russian aerospace firm. Can't help to wonder how reliable and credible the Russian aerospace really is these days.

[alberttky 0]

 

BEIJING: China's first jumbo jet, the C919, is expected to make its maiden flight in 2014 as planned, its chief designer told China's Xinhua news agency on Monday.

The design of C919's airframe has been completed and the ground tests of the jet's major equipment will start in 2013, said Wu Guanghui, the jumbo jet's chief designer and vice general manager of the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC), the aircraft's manufacturer.

The company had overcome a lot of difficulties, including insufficient experiences and technological reserves, weak industrial foundation and fierce competition, and had made new progresses in 2012, he said.

The COMAC will complete a series of technical review work and conduct over 40 wind tunnel tests in 2013, said Wu, who is in Beijing to attend the first session of the 12th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference. -- BERNAMA

 

Read more: China's first jumbo jet to debut in 2014 - Latest - New Straits Times http://www.nst.com.my/latest/china-s-first-jumbo-jet-to-debut-in-2014-1.228452#ixzz2MXVwGhbl

 

C919 is a jumbo jet????