Will overcapacity in Southeast Asia continue in 2015?

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Carriers in Southeast Asia have battled overcapacity this year, but as they dial back their growth plans, there is a good chance that the market should be better placed to meet demand, with a positive impact on yields.

Tigerair has taken the most drastic action. The Singapore based carrier is to sub-lease 12 Airbus A320s – around one-third of its fleet – to IndiGo for up to four years. While the airline is dealing with its own internal problems, such action indicates that it sees no return to growth in the near-term.

Competitor Jetstar Asia has not announced any plans to downsize its fleet, but it has made no secret of the fact that its growth plans remain on ice for the foreseeable future.

Jetstar group chief executive Jayne Hrdlicka told Flightglobal’s Airline Business magazine recently that she views the low-cost market in Southeast Asia as now in a mature phase of its growth cycle.

“Everyone’s stepped back and realised that the heady days of double-digit growth are done,” she says. “The growth of the middle class and the underlying health of the various economies in Southeast Asia will have a huge impact on how quickly we can grow going forward.”

In light of that new reality, Qantas has deferred the last of the planned A320ceo deliveries that were to go to the Jetstar group, and instead converted them to neo variants that are being delivered from 2016 onwards.

This year, even Lion Air has taken steps to reel back its capacity. CapStats data shows that in 2014 the carrier’s cumulative ASKs were down by 9.5%, year-on-year. It has also moved some aircraft outside of its operations via leasing arm Transportation Partners, which placed two Boeing 737-800s with start-up Chinese carrier 9 Air. Other narrowbody delivery positions have also been sold to other lessors.

Nevertheless, Lion still maintains a growing delivery skyline which is not set to slow down soon. Next year, the carrier will take delivery of 45 narrowbody aircraft, with deliveries peaking at 80 aircraft a year later.

Full Analysis here: http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/analysis-will-overcapacity-in-southeast-asia-continue-in-407050/

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Another way for these airlines to stay in the air is to get some traffic from mainland China which is expected to have tremendous growth for the next couple of years. It is currently churning out hundreds of pilots from its Civil Aviation Flight University of China.