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Mohd Suhaimi Fariz

MAS Privatisation

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If MH couldn't even sustain the load to Australian routes, there's no way QF would return. Given that MH has a better position to bring more connecting passengers to down under compared to QF.

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Hoping EK or QF pick up the slack. Higher chance of the former doing BNE-KUL. On the topic of South East Asia to Brisbane. TG/EK's loads from BNE to BKK or SIN aren't that good. Would be nice if EK 432/433 stop via KUL then SIN. From several friends, plus looking at loads EK 432 / 433 between BNE-SIN aren't that stellar.

MH's reputation hasn't been that good in Australia which has hampered their ability to capture AU origin traffic...

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If you have been following the leaks from my spies at the MH Rumour Department over the past 3 years, BNE has been identified as the 2nd most unprofitable route in MH network since the axing of CPT-EZE time.

 

So its demise is very expected and not surprising at all (in fact it should have gone together with CPT and EZE).

 

On why AKL is still intact, I don't know why. AKL was identified as the most unprofitable route in MH's network since the axing of CPT-EZE time.

 

Something to refresh your mind:

 

 

Breaking news from the MH Rumour Department!!!

A new set of routes have been announced as bye bye! KUL-FCO is out, so does KUL-SUB and SIN-PEN-LGK.

This is on top of KUL-KHI-DXB, KUL-DXB-DMM, KUL-DXB which have been identified and KUL-JNB and KUL-CPT-EZE which have been officially announced.

Date of last service of those routes:

DXB/DMM - 12 January 2012
KHI/DXB - 13 January 2012
JNB - 31 January 2012
LGK-PEN-SIN - 7 January 2012
SUB - 30 January 2012
FCO - 2 February 2012
CPT-EZE - 1 February 2012

This is of highly credible source as the info was embargoed from MH's internal email.

 

 

 

I apologise for digging up this 2nd biggest thread in MW from its long sleep but I would like to share some interesting info about the list of destinations that was cut in early 2012.

 

I had a 4 eyes meeting with a spy from the MH Rumour Department yesterday and according to the spy, there are 2 more destinations that were (or probably still are) bleeding but it survived the cut despite being listed down as candidates for the culling to the grand master up high, back then. The 2 destinations are AKL and BNE. The most shocking part is that AKL is the 2nd most unprofitable destination/route at that time, beaten by only CPT-EZE. This route has not only survived but even soared in current times being served by the airline with a daily frequency. We tried to figure out what is the reason behind this prevailing feat but the best that we can conclude is that MH would probably does not want to lose its non stop service to New Zealand. And yes, we did discussed about why BNE and AKL do not being tagged together as well since both destinations were in the list.

 

Another shocking info is that some of the other routes that I personally thought were not making money due to its low frequency and far distance from KUL were actually isn't. IST (currently 3 weekly B772) and FRA (currently 5 weekly B772) were/are profitable.

 

However, there is no mention of TPE (now NRT)-LAX.

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With D7 pulling out of CHC years ago, now MH has virtually total monopoly on Malaysia to NZ market. How come they still not making money? Air NZ does not fly to KUL. Handover the pie to SQ? SQ isn't doing very well either with NZ route and now collaborating with Air NZ for better load.

 

Seems like BNE is the new bane for Australia after Darwin. Years ago, BI left long ago, now MH. Won't be surprised if TG cut it too. SQ should be able to pick up some slack as it has stronger branding recognition in Oz market.

 

D7 may want to mount an extra flight to Perth, with morning arrival into KUL to connect to regional routes.


 

 

KUL-MLE load is consistently over 70%. Hope UL won't rise KUL-CMB-MLE fare too much.

And the ticket ain't cheap either.

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Maybe MH thinks it can feed EU Profitable traffic as it has a competitive 1 stop advantage compared to the ME 3 minus Qatar. But, still there's alot of competition CZ/CX/KE/NZ via the USA/SQ/TG.

BNE was BI's only profitable route in their network when they cut it, apparently the frame was needed because of some Melbourne Airport deal.

 

SQ gets it good because they own part of VA hence the feed.

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Maybe MH thinks it can feed EU Profitable traffic as it has a competitive 1 stop advantage compared to the ME 3 minus Qatar. But, still there's alot of competition CZ/CX/KE/NZ via the USA/SQ/TG.

BNE was BI's only profitable route in their network when they cut it, apparently the frame was needed because of some Melbourne Airport deal.

 

SQ gets it good because they own part of VA hence the feed.

 

No that is not true, I'm not sure who told you that but BI did not cut BNE because of a deal with Melbourne Airport. BI actually had quite a few spare 772's sitting around after it cut PER, BNE and AKL from its network. MEL was kept as it was considered a strategic route for BI, the same could be said for MH too.

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Maybe MH thinks it can feed EU Profitable traffic as it has a competitive 1 stop advantage compared to the ME 3 minus Qatar. But, still there's alot of competition CZ/CX/KE/NZ via the USA/SQ/TG.

BNE was BI's only profitable route in their network when they cut it, apparently the frame was needed because of some Melbourne Airport deal.

 

SQ gets it good because they own part of VA hence the feed.

True. Nice to know BNE was the only profitable route. Guess their Kangaroo route plan didn't pan out well. All were suspended except for Melbourne. BI's Singapore and Kuala Lumpur are now also earning them bucketload of money. Others not so much.

 

No that is not true, I'm not sure who told you that but BI did not cut BNE because of a deal with Melbourne Airport. BI actually had quite a few spare 772's sitting around after it cut PER, BNE and AKL from its network. MEL was kept as it was considered a strategic route for BI, the same could be said for MH too.

Correct!! Partial reason why BI didn't cut MEL as what you have stated. They didn't want to risk lawsuit if they suspend the route. After the route culling, you can always see three B777 parked at Brunei In't Airport at noon, before they depart for UK and Oz flight.

 

Good that they didn't cut it as MEL has large Vietnamese and Chinese population, Shanghai and HCM connect well.

 

Perth was served using A320, couldn't make the timing to connect with UK flight.

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Its official now: 2 Route cuts

 

KUL-BNE: Route axed from 09AUG

KUL-MLE: Route axed from 23AUG

From "More than 100 destinations across 6 continenets" till more and more on the chopping board...I just hope MH wouldn't be as small as BI!

 

By the way, where would those assets (aircrafts) goes / doing after another round of all those cuts....

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Update at 1415GMT 24JUN15 at airline route.net

 

Malaysia Airlines this week adjusted its inventory, which sees further downsizing to its operation. Majority of these changes will begin from August 2015.

 

Kuala Lumpur Brisbane eff 09AUG15 1 daily service cancelled, currently operated by A330-300

Kuala Lumpur Guangzhou eff 15AUG15 Service reduce from 2 to 1 daily, MH380/381 cancelled

Kuala Lumpur Ho Chi Minh eff 15AUG15 Service reduce from 4 to 3 daily, MH760/761 cancelled (Except 31AUG15)

Kuala Lumpur Hong Kong

eff 01AUG15 MH072/073 operated by Boeing 737-800, replacing 777-200ER (Overall 4 daily 737-800)

eff 15AUG15 Service reduce from 4 to 3 daily, MH448/449 cancelled

Kuala Lumpur Male eff 23AUG15 1 daily service cancelled, currently operated by 737-800

Kuala Lumpur Manila eff 15AUG15 Service reduce from 5 to 4 daily, MH708/709 cancelled

Kuala Lumpur Perth eff 15AUG15 Service reduce from 12 to 7 weekly, MH127/126 cancelled

Kuala Lumpur Siem Reap eff 17AUG15 Service reduce from 7 to 5 weekly, Day 1,4 cancelled

Kuala Lumpur Taipei Taoyuan eff 15AUG15 Service reduce from 2 to 1 daily, MH408/409 cancelled

Kuala Lumpur Yangon eff 18AUG15 Service reduce from 14 to 11 weekly

 

Note some of these reductions are not reflected in the airlines timetable listing, but has been closed for reservation in the inventory.

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Malaysia Airlines this week adjusted its inventory, which sees further downsizing to its operation. Majority of these changes will begin from August 2015.

Kuala Lumpur – Brisbane eff 09AUG15 1 daily service cancelled, currently operated by A330-300
Kuala Lumpur – Guangzhou eff 15AUG15 Service reduce from 2 to 1 daily, MH380/381 cancelled
Kuala Lumpur – Ho Chi Minh eff 15AUG15 Service reduce from 4 to 3 daily, MH760/761 cancelled (Except 31AUG15)
Kuala Lumpur – Hong Kong
eff 01AUG15 MH072/073 operated by Boeing 737-800, replacing 777-200ER (Overall 4 daily 737-800)
eff 15AUG15 Service reduce from 4 to 3 daily, MH448/449 cancelled

Kuala Lumpur – Male eff 23AUG15 1 daily service cancelled, currently operated by 737-800
Kuala Lumpur – Manila eff 15AUG15 Service reduce from 5 to 4 daily, MH708/709 cancelled
Kuala Lumpur – Perth eff 15AUG15 Service reduce from 12 to 7 weekly, MH127/126 cancelled
Kuala Lumpur – Siem Reap eff 17AUG15 Service reduce from 7 to 5 weekly, Day 14 cancelled
Kuala Lumpur – Taipei Taoyuan eff 15AUG15 Service reduce from 2 to 1 daily, MH408/409 cancelled
Kuala Lumpur – Yangon eff 18AUG15 Service reduce from 14 to 11 weekly

Link: http://airlineroute.net/2015/06/24/mh-aug15/

Edited by syafiq aidil law

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I'm most upset about the 408/409 cancellation :( - especially the 408 - at 1.25am departure it would be the only flight at the main terminal , and there would be little in the satellite terminal too. KLIA would practically be deserted. Pitch up in the airport at 12.30 or so and waltz to the gate in 5 minutes. Yeah loads were crap but great for pax like me :)

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Most are cancelled mid August. Time to repaint some aircraft and refurbish the 330s in time for a September relaunch?

Not just that - they are cutting staff too, remember?

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looks like Air Asia and Air Asia X will gain more passengers and reduced frequencies from MAS and seems like too AK fares have been inching upwards. And for like Male, it will be only AK that will serve this route. It would be even harder in near future when MAS have solved most of its rationalization and woes and try to regain back its regional network - as by then AK will be more entrench in such regional routings.

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looks like Air Asia and Air Asia X will gain more passengers and reduced frequencies from MAS and seems like too AK fares have been inching upwards. And for like Male, it will be only AK that will serve this route. It would be even harder in near future when MAS have solved most of its rationalization and woes and try to regain back its regional network - as by then AK will be more entrench in such regional routings.

Agree with you. However, AirAsia Group is not doing well either now.

 

They are consolidating their operation now, and are not seeking considerable expansion this year. Maybe a new route or two, but nothing big is coming these few years as they are trying to digest all the new plane they have bought.

 

AirAsia X is no longer hiring and letting go staff, whichever mid haul routes they can have substantial operation they have flown and some have been dropped.

 

Indonesia AirAsia is dealing with red tape, IPO coming.

 

AirAsia Philippines are trying to digest Zest Air operation and retiring aircraft, IPO coming.

 

AirAsia India is slowing their expansion due to red tape too. Since launching their operation in Sept 2014, they only managed to capture 1% +/- 0.2 of the domestic market. Comparatively, Vistara which started Jan 2015, they have managed to capture 1.2% market share.

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looks like Air Asia and Air Asia X will gain more passengers and reduced frequencies from MAS and seems like too AK fares have been inching upwards. And for like Male, it will be only AK that will serve this route. It would be even harder in near future when MAS have solved most of its rationalization and woes and try to regain back its regional network - as by then AK will be more entrench in such regional routings.

I think Airasia X will be a bigger beneficiary because they have been taking the brunt of the losses for the overcapacity in the Australian market.

 

Airasia suffered from MAS'fare dumping too - but they are more diversified and have other income to keep the bottom line from sinking into the deep red ocean.

 

Unfortunately, MAS will have to suffer from the excesses of decades of government interference and poor management. It is looking like they are following what Japan Airlines has done. They need to shrink so that it is easier to sort out problems when an organisation is smaller and tighter.

 

A stronger and better managed MAS is more than capable of winning back market share and compete. It really depends on whether the employees of newco have a different mindset. Right now, cutting costs must be the main focus.

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SYD & MEL will revert back to 2x daily, ADL no longer daily

 

Malaysia Airlines on Thursday morning (25JUN15) local time further updated its inventory, which sees planned International Network downsizing being extended to other cities in Australia and Indonesia, starting August 2015.

 

Kuala Lumpur Adelaide eff 09AUG15 Service reduce from 7 to 4 weekly (Day 357 from KUL, Day 146 from ADL cancelled)

Kuala Lumpur Medan Kuala Namu eff 09AUG15 Service reduce from 3 to 2 daily, MH846/847 cancelled1

Kuala Lumpur Melbourne eff 02AUG15 Service reduce from 3 to 2 daily, MH147/146 cancelled

Kuala Lumpur Sydney eff 03AUG15 Service reduce from 3 to 2 daily, MH143/142 cancelled

 

http://airlineroute.net/2015/06/25/mh-aug15update2/

Edited by Mohd Suhaimi Fariz

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Agree with you. However, AirAsia Group is not doing well either now.

 

They are consolidating their operation now, and are not seeking considerable expansion this year. Maybe a new route or two, but nothing big is coming these few years as they are trying to digest all the new plane they have bought.

 

AirAsia X is no longer hiring and letting go staff, whichever mid haul routes they can have substantial operation they have flown and some have been dropped.

 

Indonesia AirAsia is dealing with red tape, IPO coming.

 

AirAsia Philippines are trying to digest Zest Air operation and retiring aircraft, IPO coming.

 

AirAsia India is slowing their expansion due to red tape too. Since launching their operation in Sept 2014, they only managed to capture 1% +/- 0.2 of the domestic market. Comparatively, Vistara which started Jan 2015, they have managed to capture 1.2% market share.

 

I think Airasia X will be a bigger beneficiary because they have been taking the brunt of the losses for the overcapacity in the Australian market.

 

Airasia suffered from MAS'fare dumping too - but they are more diversified and have other income to keep the bottom line from sinking into the deep red ocean.

 

Unfortunately, MAS will have to suffer from the excesses of decades of government interference and poor management. It is looking like they are following what Japan Airlines has done. They need to shrink so that it is easier to sort out problems when an organisation is smaller and tighter.

 

A stronger and better managed MAS is more than capable of winning back market share and compete. It really depends on whether the employees of newco have a different mindset. Right now, cutting costs must be the main focus.

 

D7 A333 is too big for most routes during off peak season. D7 may need a smaller aircraft like 788 or A321 to survive.

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D7 A333 is too big for most routes during off peak season. D7 may need a smaller aircraft like 788 or A321 to survive.

I think the A321NEO LR will be ideal for D7 - it can be configured to give roughly 50% of the A333's seating capacity.

 

As D7 is focussing more on regional routes (flights less than 8 hours), the A333 might be too large for some markets. So the A321NEO LR will be a good substitute for off peak or for thinner routes. It can also be used for adding frequencies, e.g. 2x Daily A321 instead of daily A333.

MH should also be looking at the A321NEO LR - they have similarly small markets on certain routes where the A333 would be too big.

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I think the A321NEO LR will be ideal for D7 - it can be configured to give roughly 50% of the A333's seating capacity.

 

As D7 is focussing more on regional routes (flights less than 8 hours), the A333 might be too large for some markets. So the A321NEO LR will be a good substitute for off peak or for thinner routes. It can also be used for adding frequencies, e.g. 2x Daily A321 instead of daily A333.

MH should also be looking at the A321NEO LR - they have similarly small markets on certain routes where the A333 would be too big.

 

Hope TF realize the over capacity, swallow some pride and start to order 321.

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The Malaysian government was forced to spend RM19.2 billion from 2001-2014 to help MAS

 

 

http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v8/bu/newsbusiness.php?id=1146848

 

 

I've had this going on in my mind for a long time. What I'm about to say may seem shocking to you, but try to understand the mechanics. If not, dismiss it as the ramblings of a crazy woman :)

 

Fact: MH has been losing money for a long time

Fact: Yields are crap because products are uncompetitive. nobody wants to pay a premium for it

Fact: Assuming the article is correct, from the period 2001-2014, the Malaysian Government has bailed out MH to the tune of 19.2 billion RM.

Fact: There are 30.6 million malaysians (lebih kurang la - a bit here and there does not make much of a difference)

Mathematically: Every Malaysian Man, Woman and Child has been "penalised" to the tune of RM 627 over the course of 2001-2014

 

 

RM 627 per person - can be looked at two ways

 

a) I have never flown MH why should I pay for their ineptitude?

B) Ok I'm going to get my RM 627 back. Remember, Low Yields=Low prices.

 

(note: let's not get into the discussion that i have 17 children, 4 wives and 35 grandchildren so i must multiply by the number of kids etc - because at some stage those kids will also join the workforce)

 

If you've been a beneficiary of GREATER than RM 627 in cheap tickets (not terribly difficult to quantify) over the years 2001-2014, then reality is you should be hoping the status quo continues.

 

I certainly have. There have been so many crazy specials (i mean gila benar) over the years........and cost a fraction of what SQ charges.

 

I've been looking - and there is DEFINITE creep upwards in fares systemwide (don't just look at it from your fave route perspective) but look holistically. Spesial-Gila Fares that used to exist day in day out are gone.

 

To be honest, if you really wanted 1-2-1 special business class with leather seats , sunroof, 18 hole golf course, 50m olympic swimming pool - the option is already there: We call it SQ. You pay for it, but the option is there.

 

Having MH and SQ in the paradigm they are currently in - is like having a mamak and a steakhouse near me. Some days mamak, some days steak. Because of cost, naturally I will eat more mamak than eat steak.

 

Problem is now the mamak wants to become a steakhouse. I don't need two steakhouses near my home. We keep cheering on this mamak to become a steakhouse because it's prestigious to be a steakhouse and not a mamak without considering whether we can afford the rebranded mamak afterwards.

 

I may be a minority here, but send me the bank account details, i'll bank in the RM 627 and you please keep the prices like they were for the next 15 years. If the status quo must remain with 20,000 staff and the brahmin's contract - so be it. Can't be picky.

 

 

MH will relaunch, repaint, put in new 1-2-1 business class seats. Make Malaysia proud again. With a bit of luck, even profitable. Mr Muller if given his way, will do the job, and will do it well. And he'll charge you for it.

 

Me? I got two steakhouses to choose from and not enough money for either.

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I can't afford to eat in mamak nowadays... I guess I have to take away nasi lemak at the roadside stall ;)

If Uncle Tony roadside warong and Uncle Chandra Rama Murthy roadside warong raise prices also, due to them seeing the mamak rebranding to steakhouse - then maybe even both roadside warong also cannot afford liao.

 

 

:acute:Here's my bank account: Maybank. 574493450023 for your RM627 donation.

 

But you are right in that perspective.

I tried to bank in. Said it was full due to too much money. :D

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