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Mohd Suhaimi Fariz

MAS Privatisation

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43 minutes ago, BC Tam said:

Does that mean the birds end up in the knacker's yard sooner than what would have been the case in 'the old days' ?

The old days the hour utilisation rates and take off+landing cycle for mh aircrafts were very low to a point they could be kept for at least 20years. The 738 and current 333 now would need replacing at 11-15 years average. Airlines on the LCC front have to have theirs dispose within 7-8 years due to heavy usage. Then you have premium airlines in gulf replacing theirs in 10 years as they can afford to keep hard products in check or it is redundant as in the case of Thais and SQs very young a333 fleet being entirely replaced by a350. 

 

For why aircrafts that are still usable needing to be dispose. Well you can replace equipment avionics and pipping onboard brand new, but on heavily used aircraft the replacement cycle for such equipment even after it is being replaced is a lot shorter compared to a brand new aircraft or on an aircraft that has very low hours. Some countries that cant afford new planes basically hoard parts and replace them so quickly like lolipop which may not look efficient by current standards. For mh's 330 that will leave starting next year highly doubt any would see life except those being selected the freighter conversion module. 

 

Edited by jahur

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Thank you for the insight !

Would be fascinating if we are able to delve into the numbers and see how investment of the many millions in the equipment is economically viable within the 8-15 years time frame

Must be viable, whether airline owner or lessor, for that is what is being done now😀

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7 hours ago, jahur said:

330 successor rumored to be announced on Farnborough Air Show this july 18th but we'll see.

The interview with the CEO seems to confirm it is the NEO. No?

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On 7/13/2022 at 7:20 PM, BC Tam said:

Does that mean the birds end up in the knacker's yard sooner than what would have been the case in 'the old days' ?

The A330-300 has a healthy P2F conversion programme. I think the lessors may sell them for conversion if they cannot find pax airlines to lease to. However, the in demand frames are those with RR engines - some of D7's ex frames have already been converted.

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Malaysia Airlines to commence second daily flight to Doha from 01Aug2022

MH164/165 will also be operated by A330

MH164 KUL0255 – 0515DOH 333 D
MH160 KUL2120 – 2350DOH 333 D

MH161 DOH0150 – 1440KUL 333 D
MH165 DOH0805 – 2055KUL 333 D

Reservations are not open yet so still subject to change

 


 

 

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It seems mab is still largely dictated by the government, don't have strategic plan or realistic business model.

 

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4 hours ago, Dr Frasier said:

Malaysia Airlines to commence second daily flight to Doha from 01Aug2022

MH164/165 will also be operated by A330

MH164 KUL0255 – 0515DOH 333 D
MH160 KUL2120 – 2350DOH 333 D

MH161 DOH0150 – 1440KUL 333 D
MH165 DOH0805 – 2055KUL 333 D

Reservations are not open yet so still subject to change

 


 

 

Believe most pax on these flights would be on qr ticket, to allow qr to reassign their aircraft to other routes.

 

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7 hours ago, KK Lee said:

It seems mab is still largely dictated by the government, don't have strategic plan or realistic business model.

It would seem that MAB's parents, MAG is only able to receive Khazanah funds and is not able to raise capital on its own. So far, Khazanah seems only prepared to grant funds for operations but not for capital expenditure. Therefore MAB cannot really do much in terms of charting a long term strategy for the airline - not that they have ever been great at that, even in their heydays.

They are only "good" at making turnaround plans. 🤣

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On 7/15/2021 at 1:08 PM, JuliusWong said:

Malaysia Airlines has officially put their six A380s up for sale:

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/malaysia-airlines_open-tender-noticemab-pesawat-sdn-bhd-activity-6821300641286238208-VEVt

OPEN TENDER NOTICE: MAB Pesawat Sdn Bhd (MABP) is conducting an open tender for the sale of six (6) AIRBUS 380-800 aircraft and/or its components. MABP invites interested buyers to send their proposals via email to: aircraft.project@malaysiaairlines.com cc vendor@malaysiaairlines.com

Please send your interest of participation by 12pm (Malaysia Time, GMT +8) on Thursday, 12 August 2021.

After a year, they don't seem to be any closer to selling the A380s. I think they need to make some decision about scrapping them.

Post pandemic, some airlines seem to have a change of heart and are bringing back their A380s to boost capacity and help overcome crew shortage. Lufthansa is recalling them after deciding to retire the fleet. The same is happening at Qatar due to their A350 grounding. MAB should be looking at whether it should scrap the A380 since they are unable to sell them and have no plans to reintroduce them on their services. Keeping them in long term storage also costs money.

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36 minutes ago, flee said:

It would seem that MAB's parents, MAG is only able to receive Khazanah funds and is not able to raise capital on its own. So far, Khazanah seems only prepared to grant funds for operations but not for capital expenditure. Therefore MAB cannot really do much in terms of charting a long term strategy for the airline - not that they have ever been great at that, even in their heydays.

They are only "good" at making turnaround plans. 🤣

Turnaround plans were nothing but asset stripping with 0 product renewal.

Edited by jahur

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7 hours ago, KK Lee said:

It seems mab is still largely dictated by the government, don't have strategic plan or realistic business model.

 

Doesn't help that the gov is charting our airlines towards very low yielding countries. Luckily it has been beneficial for Airasia as the target market meets theirs. Other govs in ASEAN have very fix distinctive strategy for their flag carriers to leverage on. Even communist Vietnam knows what works for Vietnam Airlines.

 

Malaysia gov is asking you to fly a330 into chongqing etc expecting full business class by chinese taukehs. Then wondering why it doesn't work while you have mumbai dehli bali overbooked on business class and you are only sending 737s over there.

Edited by jahur

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18 hours ago, flee said:

The A330-300 has a healthy P2F conversion programme. I think the lessors may sell them for conversion if they cannot find pax airlines to lease to. However, the in demand frames are those with RR engines - some of D7's ex frames have already been converted.

AirAsia X frames seems to be 233t version with RR engines, not sure about MH weight variant, and with so many RR-engines powered A330 fleet in the desert now, MH PW fleet will mostly like head for scrappers. Even an 8 year old A330-200 with PW engines (MSN1019, ex-VN) was recently scrapped, can't see much hope for MH's.

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11 hours ago, KK Lee said:

Believe most pax on these flights would be on qr ticket, to allow qr to reassign their aircraft to other routes.

If I have paid for for Q Suite, I will definitely be pissed if they put me on MH frame. Both J class are two worlds apart.

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On 7/13/2022 at 11:47 PM, jani said:

The interview with the CEO seems to confirm it is the NEO. No?

Still up in the air, a strong rumour though  to be confirmed next week.

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3 hours ago, flee said:

After a year, they don't seem to be any closer to selling the A380s. I think they need to make some decision about scrapping them.

Post pandemic, some airlines seem to have a change of heart and are bringing back their A380s to boost capacity and help overcome crew shortage. Lufthansa is recalling them after deciding to retire the fleet. The same is happening at Qatar due to their A350 grounding. MAB should be looking at whether it should scrap the A380 since they are unable to sell them and have no plans to reintroduce them on their services. Keeping them in long term storage also costs money.

The price tag wasn't right. BA wanted them for expansion (pre-COVID that is), but they could not agree on the conversion cost. MH's A380 are some of the earlier versions, and cabin layout is special to MH's needs. Everyone on the table could not agree to the price to convert and standardise the fleet to BA's requirement. USD20million to convert each A380s btw from what I have heard. The deal went down the shredder machine.

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8 hours ago, JuliusWong said:

If I have paid for for Q Suite, I will definitely be pissed if they put me on MH frame. Both J class are two worlds apart.

QR does advised kul-doh sector is operate by mh.

 

11 hours ago, jahur said:

Doesn't help that the gov is charting our airlines towards very low yielding countries. Luckily it has been beneficial for Airasia as the target market meets theirs. Other govs in ASEAN have very fix distinctive strategy for their flag carriers to leverage on. Even communist Vietnam knows what works for Vietnam Airlines.

 

Malaysia gov is asking you to fly a330 into chongqing etc expecting full business class by chinese taukehs. Then wondering why it doesn't work while you have mumbai dehli bali overbooked on business class and you are only sending 737s over there.

MOT and PMO is not known to be business savvy; to follow their directive is almost certain to end in losses. type of aircraft deployed is operational, for mot to get involved could only end with bad result, also means mab management is spineless.

 

11 hours ago, flee said:

It would seem that MAB's parents, MAG is only able to receive Khazanah funds and is not able to raise capital on its own. So far, Khazanah seems only prepared to grant funds for operations but not for capital expenditure. Therefore MAB cannot really do much in terms of charting a long term strategy for the airline - not that they have ever been great at that, even in their heydays.

They are only "good" at making turnaround plans. 🤣

Aircraft delivery take a few years. without a feasible strategic plan, mh couldn't ensure long term survival..

heard from a few friends; it seems mh has been cancelling low load flight and combined pax to improve load, also means mh is not dependable. those pax with tight schedule is not advisable and unlikely to book with mh.

 

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9 hours ago, KK Lee said:

heard from a few friends; it seems mh has been cancelling low load flight and combined pax to improve load, also means mh is not dependable. those pax with tight schedule is not advisable and unlikely to book with mh.

 

 

Looks like AirAsia is learning from MH then. Had my flight to SIN changed 3x on AK recently. From 8am departure retimed/changed to 5pm. So AK is not dependable too. 

Edited by Pall

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2 hours ago, Pall said:

Looks like AirAsia is learning from MH then. Had my flight to SIN changed 3x on AK recently. From 8am departure retimed/changed to 5pm. So AK is not dependable too. 

Aren't AK the masters of flight consolidation in their early days? MH learnt from them and now both of them do it.

However, these are tough times - both airlines simply don't have any choice as they cannot afford to burn cash flying unprofitable flights. Unlike US and EU airlines, they did not get any government financial assistance during the pandemic. They therefore need to be frugal as they are still fighting for survival.

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All airlines in Malaysia are now re-timing, cancelling, rescheduling a lot now last recall it being 2.5x more than pre covid accross the board with airasia being the worse during the Raya fiasco.

 

This is also occuring in other parts of the world. Airlines overselling seats but not facing the logistic reality and also being pressured by flyers and govs to keep ticket cost low. So end result selling many seats it cannot offer for the cash flow.

 

We are only lucky we don't have mass exodus by ground handlers or getting your bags on arrival is like an unreliable courier service.

Edited by jahur

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On 7/14/2022 at 10:37 PM, Dr Frasier said:

Malaysia Airlines to commence second daily flight to Doha from 01Aug2022

MH164/165 will also be operated by A330

MH164 KUL0255 – 0515DOH 333 D
MH160 KUL2120 – 2350DOH 333 D

MH161 DOH0150 – 1440KUL 333 D
MH165 DOH0805 – 2055KUL 333 D

Reservations are not open yet so still subject to change

 


 

 

So we will now see 3x DOH per day? 2x MH 1x QR? Or will QR exit?

 

Speaking about all these lack of strategy and funding etc, should just ask Qatar to buy MH through IAG, who they own 25% of already 😁

Although half joking, it does make some sense from a network point of view.

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16 hours ago, jani said:

Speaking about all these lack of strategy and funding etc, should just ask Qatar to buy MH through IAG, who they own 25% of already 😁

Although half joking, it does make some sense from a network point of view.

MH is not a pure business - it is an extension of the Malaysian government's ego. I doubt they will allow MH to be sold to foreign entities.

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1 hour ago, flee said:

MH is not a pure business - it is an extension of the Malaysian government's ego. I doubt they will allow MH to be sold to foreign entities.

Knowing how the gov operates. They would allow Qatar to buy but in exchange for a so called start up company being headed by their crony in the name of job creation and false technology transfer which wont be beneficial to the foreign buyer.

 

We can see by how MOF acquired military assets for mindef. 4x A400, Scorpene, even the 6x A380 were years of bundle deal with the result of CTRM being build lol. 24x H225 helicopters would equiv to 40 sikorsky black hawks but the gov bulldozed the idea cause airbus helicopter would setup a manufacturing plant in subang. RMAF and ATM knows the black hawk had lower maintenance and operating cost and were pushing for it but gov prefers the other. End up our h225 were grounded for 3-5years due to gearbox design issue and remaining 12 on order were scrapped. Now we are in midst of leasing AW139s that do not serve the former 36x retired nuri we used to have.

 

6x A380 still selected over the b777-300ER when delays were announced cause they were in midst of Scorpene and a few manufacturing plants. 4X A400M selected over 12x brand new C130j then RMAF struggle to maintain the sukhoi fighters due to the A400 slurping most of their annual operating budget til a point OPEX funds were low.

 

Now their big brain move for the bae hawk replacement requires sawit barter and manufacturing plant job creation AGAIN.

 

Could list down a long list of gov screw up in the name of bumi job creation and half baked technology transfers. 

 

 

Edited by jahur

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2 hours ago, jahur said:

Could list down a long list of gov screw up in the name of bumi job creation and half baked technology transfers. 

Malaysia is such a blessed country - it is so full of natural resources and does not suffer from natural disasters like earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, typhoons or tsunamis. But we do lack one very important thing - smart politicians who care about their country and their people. All we have are smart politicians who carve out the nation's assets to enrich themselves and their cronies. That is why we are what we are today, after almost 65 years of independence.

Edited by flee

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On 7/16/2022 at 5:19 PM, jani said:

So we will now see 3x DOH per day? 2x MH 1x QR? Or will QR exit?

 

Speaking about all these lack of strategy and funding etc, should just ask Qatar to buy MH through IAG, who they own 25% of already 😁

Although half joking, it does make some sense from a network point of view.

mh or kul couldn't add much value to qr network, doubt Akbar Al Baker would even consider.

 

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