JuliusWong

Sayonara forever?

Definitely need to hear the whole interview transcript before we should pass our judgement. Media, especially those in Malaysia, loves to sensationalize the story to earn clicks. Various media now are reporting bits and pieces of the whole interview. That being said, the MSA split to MAS and SIA was the turning point. TAR wanted to prioritize the domestic front while LKY wanted to develop the international front. They never get along well. Never meant to be, better split up. Malaysia Airlines System was sealed after Mr. Tajuddin Ramli took over the the management in 1994. Many stuff were propped up artificially, and it all came crashing down down in 2001 after 9/11 incident. The successive management teams were limping from HDU to CCU to ICU......The airline never stood a chance to recover at all, basically with no money in their bank account forcing them to sell their assets. Like it or not, when you are a beggar, you cannot be choosy. While the public can say whatever they want with Idris Jala (2009 - 2011) being assets stripper, cutting the Group to bare bones, what could be done differently then when you have no cash in hand to fund your daily operation? Malaysia Airlines had 20,000 employees and reported losses of USD400 million in the 9 months leading to his entrance. In just 24 months of rigorous transformation, he produced a $260m profit (many said via selling off assets, but hey at least you have money to fund your operation). If you are given the post, what would you do differently compared to him? 2001 was also the rise of AirAsia. In the subsequent years, MH saw several CEOs coming and leaving after a short period of time in the hot seat, Tengku Datuk Azmil Zahruddin (2009 - 2011), Ahmad Jauhari (2011 - 2015), Christoph Mueller (2015 - 2016), Peter Bellew (2016 - 2017), Izham Ismail (2017 - current), each CEOs had their own strategy but did not possess the strong will to make hard decision unfortunately. Farnborough Airshow is in July this year, fingers crossed MAG has made their mind in placing another order for 20 A330-900neo and 20 A321neo/ B737 Max 10.

This seems to be normal occurrence in airports worldwide. Most, if not all major airlines, have divested or outsourced their ground service to third party company. Their employment terms are usually lesser than ideal from what they have been receiving when they were under the airline itself. Often long hours with minimum pay, but still need to fork out much money to eat at the airport. Some outsourcing companies even hire non-native to man the counters. That being said my encounter with AeroDarat was hit and miss. Some of them were very pleasant, some were just doing minimal smile. My recent encounter with Swissport ground staff at Osaka Int'l Airport left too much to be desired for. I was flying AirAsia X, after long period of shadow ban. Ground staff were mostly non-local: Thai, Russians, Korean etc some barely speaking basic English language. Counter opened at 7:45am. Flight departing at 10:45am. I arrived at 8:00am. There were seven counters opened, two for premium customers, the rest for non-premium. There were no counter for online check in baggage drop and they did not divert the lines to premium lines even though there were no pax checking in there. It was so frustrating long check-in/baggage drop process. I only managed to drop my luggage and got my boarding pass at 9:25am. Boarding time was 9:45am. It was a mad rush to clear security check and immigration clearance. Thank God the security check was swift and there was no line at immigration counters. No time to explore the newly refurbished airside terminal.

Assembling an A320neo will take around one to two months pre-COVID, I am pretty sure after the pandemic it will take slightly longer due to supply chain issue. We should be seeing A321neo in production sequence now if the first new delivery for this year is intended for June 2024. However, most production list does not show any AirAsia frames in queue. Maybe we will see lessors' frame delivered first or the production sequence will slot in March/April.

-XXR returned to service with the faded old airasia.com bold livery. Same as before. Guess they didn't repaint it due to busy period.

Unfortunately Batik Air has been cancelling flight left, right and center. The IG Reels below is from Feb 16-18, when OD271 was cancelled not once but twice. Kesian the frontline staff kena kao-kao from the passengers. https://www.instagram.com/reel/C3h3PF_RreI/?igsh=ZHFjeWhlbDNibXk5

24 new aircraft delivery this year from June 2024, one new aircraft every week on average till Dec 2024. That is a lot of capacity to absorb with all deliveries being A321neo...not sure if he is quoted wrongly.

They have been recording profit since emerging from the COVID 19 restrictions. Malaysia will lose Thailand and Vietnam markets moving forward, time to gird lions MH, AK, D7. The competition will be very tough in the next decades with all the new aircraft orders and market expansion by all the airlines.

Something related to AirAsia market scope, Vietjet signs a provisional order with Airbus for 20 A330-900neos, to be delivered from 2026 onwards. This will take out a chunk of Fly-Thru passengers from AirAsia, especially on Vietnam-Australia market. AirAsia X will only resume A330-900neo delivery next year 2025, having 15 on order. https://www.airbus.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2024-02-vietjet-to-order-20-a330neo-widebodie

Airbus and Malaysia Airlines announces MOU for carbon emission studies during Singapore Airshow 2024.

Some updates for MAG:

Won't be surprised if he does so, he visited Toulouse last year something must have been brewing. His royal fleet needs some tender loving care. His B767-27G/ER needs a replacement since it is now 30 years old. His A340 retired without a proper Airbus replacement. B748i/B787-8/A330-800...perfect combo! Another B787-9 will be icing on top of the cake. Boeing will bend over their backwards for him definitely. If not, the Sultan will shell out a few hundred million to pay off any airline to grab one of their B787-9s. Like what he did for his previous B747-430 and B767-27G/ER. Royal Brunei livery looks.....hmmm...bland? on A330 though.

Yea true. It is a form of "public transport" for Brunei. Not supposed to make any money, not break even too. I wonder how much longer can the falling oil reserves and depleting $$ in national reserve can keep the country going. Brunei has been consistently recording deficit for the past few years. I missed those gold plated J lavatory though....

While I appreciate new technology and fleet replacement, this will be ultimate disaster to BI to be honest. Their current B787-8 utilisation is minimal at best, spending most of their time on the ground. Their schedule to Melbourne and London is no longer daily as pre-COVID 19 era, now transit via DXB and leasing out LHR slots to Qatar, bringing in the B787-9 will be even worse off. Unless they are planning to return to PER, BNE, SYD and AKL to support its (non-stop) LHR flight, I don't see how they can break even, let alone making marginal profit. 1990s/2000s BI with multiple hubs and eight B767s/two B757s flying weird route pattern like BWN-RGN-CCU-DXB-LHR all over again. Feeling deja vu....... This is the first airline in the world to do B787 fleet replacement, albeit with B787 as well. The four B787-9 will replace the first four B787-8 and will operate alongside with BI's fifth B787-8 V8-DLE. I don't see them flying nine B787s, that's suicidal with small international network.

IMO, I do not think MH has issue finding the right equipment, rather finding and getting an equipment at the right price is the main issue. It took them quite a while to get its seventh A350, and now dragging its feet on the eight. The plan might not happen at all since all used A350s in the market is now dried up. Moving onto B737max, MH could have taken up those 737max not taken up by other airlines, but they chose to wait for their own, which was and is still hit by several delays due to Boeing manufacturing quality issue. They could have taken the COVID19 as an opportunity to re-equip its older fleet quickly with new interiors. Retire the horrible A330-200, and get in more A350-900s. Well the new used equipment has different interior, at least it is better than current ones onboard A330-200. Or even the B787s, sign up a good support deal with Boeing, negotiate heavily with financial house for a good deal during the pandemic and get the equipment in. There were so many used B787s in the market back then. Now we are saddled with A330-900s which is one generation behind the newer equipment. Let's not forget, the B737max 10/ A321neos dilemma, the writing is on the wall for some time Boeing won't be able to get them certified and EIS anytime soon, MH should have just sign up with lessor for 20 pieces and get over and done with. If they are to place an order on its own now, they can only receive it towards the end of the decade. Most bigger SEA airlines has or will eventually A321neo in their fleet, except GA and MH now. To survive the ruthless aviation industry, you need to either go big or go home, especially now with the pent-up demand. No one knows how long it will last, best to max the opportunity now. TG has the same predicament as MH, but was very bold in making their moves. Absorbed ThaiSmile, sold properties in various location in Thailand and around the world, retire and sold older fleet and reequip their fleet quickly. They snapped up almost every available used A350s in the market, competing with Delta Airlines and Lufthansa. As a snapshot, those 45 B787-9 order they placed recently are mainly for capacity replacement and only 15 for expansion. MH is a case of "penny wi se, pound foolish". And that pound foolish will come back to bite their backside few years down the road. Oh well, some here may say, "Haiya, you dun know what is happening behind the scene la. Deal with it. Go fly SQ then." And that is the exact mindset is what is pushing premium passengers to SQ, EK, EY, QR, TK et al. You can only earn minute profit from Y class, you need sustainable profit both front and the back of the plane.

MH truly missed the boat in providing a premium hardware when they retrofitted the NG fleet and with the 737max EIS. They could have gone to Collins Aerospace Diamond or Thompson Vantage, which between the two, the latter will bring MH's narrowbody consistent with its widebody. Currently for MH has: Short Haul Business Class: Zodiac Aerospace Weber recliner seats on older B737-800NG 9M-FFF, MLK and MLL BE Aerospace Millennium recliner on non-retrofitted B737-800NG Safran Z600 recliner seats on retrofitted B737-800NG and B737-MAX8 Long Haul Business Class: Stelia Aerospace Solstys on A330-200 Thompson Vantage on A330-300 and A350-900 Thompson Vantage XL on A350-900 (9M-MAH) Collins Aerospace Diamond Thompson Vantage

Agree on the "delulu" part. LOL. Actually, TG is installing Recaro's CL4710 for its new narrowbody J class, also a recliner. Same as MH's Safran Z600i, both are classified as short-mid haul business class product by its respective OEM.

Batik Air tries Uzbekistan, AirAsia X tries Kazakhstan. Both by A330-343 C12 Y365, perhaps they did it in such a way not to cannibalize each other. Air Samarkand, a new Uzbekistan airline start-up, has Kuala Lumpur planned for its launching. Will be flown by ex-CI A330-302 C36 Y277.

With the resurgence of TG, I wonder what game plan MH has up its sleeve in the next decade. During the same period, TG will eventually have 54 B787s, 17 B77Ws, 26 A350s, 20 A320ceos, 21 A321neos= 138. That is a lot of widebody capacity being pumped into Asia, Europe and Australian routes. I hope MH will firm up the other 20 A330neos order and 20 A321neo/B737-MAX10 order. TG will also refurbish its narrowbody J class with recliner seat, MH is save here for now.

AirAsia X is doing promotion again for ALA. RM172 return, without luggage and food. Insider's news: The forward booking is looking very poor, need to do extra boost sales promotion to increase the load.

I don't think the route will last long, since Malaysians are required to apply for visa to enter Turkmenistan. Oil is cheap there, so I guess burning money by flying an empty aircraft to and fro is not a concern for them. Turkmenistan is one of the world's most bizarre tourist (lack thereof) destination, if you have watched Drew Binsky travelogue on YouTube.

Malaysia Airlines, Firefly and Batik Air will be doing a series of charter flights to China. Malaysia Airlines MH8827 from Shenyang, Liaoning, China. Operated by A330-323 9M-MTJ https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/mh8827 Others: Firefly route Nanjing-Tawau (starting Jan 23) Batik Air routes Chengdu-Langkawi (starting Feb 5) Zhengzhou-KUL (starting Feb 5) Chengdu-Kota Kinabalu (starting Feb 9) Chongqing-Langkawi (starting Feb 10) Xian-KUL (starting Feb 11) in addition, KUL is currently seeing frequency increase and a few new entrants in China-Malaysia market. China Eastern Airlines route Beijing-Kuala Lumpur (four times weekly, starting Jan 31) Loong Air route Hangzhou-KUL (three times weekly, starting Feb 1) Batik Air route Kunming-KUL (4 times weekly, starting Feb 9), and upcoming route Zhangjiajie-KUL (three times weekly, starting Feb 18).

Malaysia Airlines, Firefly and Batik Air will be doing a series of charter flights to China. Malaysia Airlines MH8827 from Shenyang, Liaoning, China. Operated by A330-323 9M-MTJ https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/mh8827 Others: Firefly route Nanjing-Tawau (starting Jan 23) Batik Air routes Chengdu-Langkawi (starting Feb 5) Zhengzhou-KUL (starting Feb 5) Chengdu-Kota Kinabalu (starting Feb 9) Chongqing-Langkawi (starting Feb 10) Xian-KUL (starting Feb 11) in addition, KUL is currently seeing frequency increase and a few new entrants in China-Malaysia market. China Eastern Airlines route Beijing-Kuala Lumpur (four times weekly, starting Jan 31) Loong Air route Hangzhou-KUL (three times weekly, starting Feb 1) Batik Air route Kunming-KUL (4 times weekly, starting Feb 9), and upcoming route Zhangjiajie-KUL (three times weekly, starting Feb 18).