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Craig

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Posts posted by Craig


  1. 16 minutes ago, JuliusWong said:

    Malaysia traffic rights to Australia and New Zealand have mostly, if not, all have been utilised by incumbents MH and D7.  

    According to MAVCOM (as of May 2022), Malaysia has open-skies agreement with NZ (unlimited flights, capacity and fifth freedom for beyond and intermediate points as long as there is 6 months prior notice). And as of 6th Sept. 2022, Malaysian carriers still has 2,774 seats capacity per week to Australia. 

    Australia Capacity (per week, to Australia): 36,500

    D7: 12,064 (33%)

    MH: 13,176 (36%)

    OD: 8,486 (23%); out of which 4,461 (53% of OD's capacity) is via DPS

    Unallocated capacity: 2,774 (8%)

    If OD wants more capacity to AU, they should get rid of their DPS stop (and in the future, should D7/MH wants more capacity to Australia, OD must either use that capacity to fly nonstop to AU or surrender their rights).


  2. On 9/12/2022 at 10:58 AM, jahur said:

    One thing i did notice overseas was the regional jet fares technically being slightly higher than the 320/737 counterpart throughout. Not sure if msia would be able to accept it or not knowing we are a very price sensitive market.

    As for operational issue in SZB. New gen aircrafts are technically quiet and should not be a noise burden nowadays. Raya 767 757 and old days 727 were a lot more noisier and as of today they still have early 2am morning arrivals not forgetting RMAFs c130s and a400ms so doubt noise concerns is the issue. SZB is just being constrained to avoid cannibalizing part of KLIAs traffic hence the turboprops only while Raya operating as cargo were not affected.

    FY/OD (prop) fares are a notch higher than the equivalent at KLIA for most part (comparing FY and MH, OD prop vs OD jet, not with AK). About Rm20-50 higher each way (at least in my experience). 

    I thought SZB is strictly prop (RMAF etc are exempted) and KLIA is for jet services, although I maybe wrong (not for noise control but they didn't want to cannibalize KLIA traffic as you say).


  3. On 9/9/2022 at 4:33 PM, JuliusWong said:

    Fleet Update for Firefly (FY):

    ATR 72-212A(500)    MSN 812          2-NEIL     ACIA Aero Capital     ferried 03-06sep22 SZB-HYD-MCR-CAI-TLS-LFBF-KEF     ex 9M-FYA

    Thank you.

    18 hours ago, jahur said:

    Another issue is the reliability of the ATRs. Its widebly known ATR's dispatch reliability starts to dwindle once it reaches age 8years old.

    FY's ATR are around 10 years old now?

    10 hours ago, jahur said:

    I dont know much about the Ejets but the A220 is a good and proper regional. Passenger comfort aspect the A220 has superior standard seats than the e-jets which are very tight.

    Cockpit functionality i do know the a220 and e2 jet it is already ahead of the a320neo and 737NG. Fuel burn is definitely more than atr but as it carries more people it can offset. The only issue is whether they can fill up the plane viably.

    I agree that the A220 is great for passenger comfort. And I can see some cities around Malaysia or secondary/tertiary ASEAN cities that FY/AK/MH can serve with the A220/Embraers (the 737/320 looks oversize). But if FY were to get those A220/Ejets, they'd need to operate out of KUL instead of SZB since they are technically jet and not props (and I am not sure how Raya Airways get away with it with their 757/767s at SZB)?


  4. 12 hours ago, jahur said:

    Firefly 737 transfer delayed. Aircraft no 4 delayed to end of this month not sure if no5 and 6 are still on schedule. Very hectic scheduling all being pushed on 3 aircrafts now. One breaks down and its Rayani flashbacks.

    Is one of the ATRs out of service? It seems like a lot of FY prop service are running late, especially towards the end of the day. I am more surprised about the 738 used for PEN-HKT - seems quite a big plane for low season travel between two cities. 

    Any news who the new owners are? :)


  5. 10 hours ago, kandiah k said:

    VN launches DAD-KUL 

    According to routesonline, Vietnam Airlines have started DAD-KUL using an A321 efective 02SEP22

    The schedule is awful tho:

    VN687 0100DAD - KUL0445

    VN686 0735KUL - DAD0900

    Never thought I'd ever see an intra-ASEAN redeye!


  6. On 9/6/2022 at 9:53 AM, Chris Tan said:

    CGK seems to be slower to recover. As far as I can tell, still once daily but jumps to 5x 738 overnight as of NW22. Even SQ’s frequency isn’t quite near pre-pandemic. 

    Slow business? Even GA is only flying 3x weekly CGK-KUL. I don't think MH has finalized their regional flights for NW22 yet. Most regional flights are showing pre-pandemic level for NW22. Seems like most increases are coming from destinations that are more tourist-centric. I don't get how places like HKT get 2 flights a day on F, Sa, Su and there are no flights between Tuesday and Thursday. 

     

    In other news, Eithad and MH will cease code-share services beginning NW22.


  7. On 9/1/2022 at 8:46 PM, JuliusWong said:

    Saw this at airliners.net:

    "Batik Air Malaysia have quietly opened bookings for nonstop Melbourne-KL flights, to commence 06/12 (ex-Malaysia). The flights will be operated with the 737 MAX 8, as follows:

    KUL-MEL
    OD173 0910-2005 Days 1/3/5/7
    OD175 1925-0620 Days 2/4/6
    MEL-KUL
    OD176 0720-1255 Days 1/3/5/7
    OD174 2105-0240 Days 3/5/7

    No announcement has been made, and at this stage flights are only loaded until February, so further changes are highly possible. If this does come to fruition however, it will be the longest scheduled 737 MAX flight anywhere in the world."

    I hope MAVCOM gave them a condition for their DPS 5th freedom flights. The AU seat capacity they requested must be returned if other airlines request for a nonstop service to AU unless they can provide the nonstop service themselves. They are basically using DPS as origin/destination for most of their AU flights but using MY's air traffic rights. 


  8. From Simple Flying

    Quote

    Captain Ismail explained that the London service is doing incredibly well, performing at almost 100% load factors, especially regarding peak summer bookings between July and early September. The company is also reporting robust forward booking for the year-end holiday season.

    But I guess MH should suspend LHR due to longer flying time or chaos at Heathrow tho. Or that MH/Malaysia has nothing to offer to the world. *sad face*


  9. 21 hours ago, flee said:

    Flying to Europe requires extended block times as various wars and conflicts have caused diversions from the normal routes. Malaysia's largest trading partners are in Asia - so demand is naturally greater and the recent order for A330Neos confirms that MAG is not looking at long haul routes for the foreseeable future.

    The present management does not have the luxury of unlimited government funds anymore - so their plans are necessarily not geared for expansion unless there is a strong business case.

    How much longer do you think MH 1/2/3/4 are now compared to say 2018/2019?!

    Malaysia's top 5 largest trading partners: China, Singapore, US, Hong Kong, and Japan. Someone already mentioned that China outside of Tier 1 cities are more suitable for D7/AK. I can assure you that the demand between AU/UK and MY is much higher than US and MY despite much higher trade and population of the latter.

    If you see TK, EK, QR increasing their capacity to KUL, it's not for travelers to/from JP, HK, SG. It's more likely for pax to Europe plus a handful to ME/US. TK/QR (plus MH) is back at their 2019 frequencies for KUL-IST/DOH. 


  10. On 8/16/2022 at 2:32 PM, flee said:

    We used to have BA, AF and LH serving KUL but they are gone as their yields are poor. Only KLM remains and that suggests that AMS may be a viable destination. MAS Kargo is already plying that route, so a daily flight to AMS might be sufficient to service the route with pax and cargo capacity.

    KL has one contract none other carriers have: Shell. And KL has beyond KUL connections (probably a lot more now since China is closed to transit). I do not know about yields, but if you look at MH's LHR flights, they u-turned on reducing flights in November (traditionally very slow period) and they are only selling higher booking class on their LHR flights now. AF/LH has no beyond KUL traffic (other than domestic MY traffic that isn't served by SQ; PEN has the highest demand for both AF/LH outside of KUL). Like I said, MH missed the golden opportunity to return to Europe this summer. Fares are extremely high and flights are full (doesn't help when the MY government announced border reopening so late).

    BTW, does anyone know what happened to FY's SZB flights? Are they over scheduling or did one their planes go tech. It seems like majority of flights later in the day are delayed by a few hours. 


  11. From Aeroroutes

    Quote

    Dubai – Kuala Lumpur
    eff 01DEC22 EK346/343 3-class A380 replaces 777-300ER, 1 daily
    eff 01DEC22 EK342/345 1 daily 777-300ER (nonstop terminator, replacing Dubai – Kuala Lumpur – Auckland)

    Might be a huge turn on for someone who's asking for the biggest and most luxurious aircraft to KUL 😏

    Seems like EK is sacrificing aircraft over crew for their KUL route (long turnaround for both flights) so crew can get their minimum rest before flying back.


  12. 8 hours ago, Robert said:

    They are probably counting visitors from Singapore including the day trips to JB.

    IIRC, Malaysia doesn’t count day trips to their visitors tally. You either have to spend more than one calendar day (pass immigration 00:01 day after arrival) or 24 hours (I am not sure which one) to be counted as a visitor. Singapore on the other hand doesn’t count Malaysians entering by road. I don’t know if any of these have changed. 


  13. 1 hour ago, JuliusWong said:

    Clearly Craig and Chris Tan need dose of reality. If Malaysia has so much to offer why aren't new airlines mounting daily non-stop flights into Malaysia? Or even current ones upping their service or bring in their largest jets? Hey, you two seems to be pro, whatever rocks your world. 

     

    You are clearly mixing up politics and state. We have plenty to offer to tourists. What we lack is a good marketing team which everyone in here agrees. 
     

    You know that Malaysia is the most competitive economy in ASEAN after Singapore? And also second in ASEAN for ease of doing business? I didn’t pull this out from my butt, but ranked by World Economic Forum and World Bank. 
     

    You know that a lot of carriers are increasing their capacity to KUL? QR/MH will increase their flights to 3X daily. EY flying 781 this summer. EK is suspending KUL-AKL (no traffic rights anyway) and bringing back terminator service. TK will increase its frequency to 10x weekly. KU is returning to KUL soon. WY also increased its KUL service. KL will bring back AMS-KUL-CGK. 
     

    I have given specific examples what Malaysia has to offer. But you keep dismissing it because the grass is greener. 


  14. 18 hours ago, JuliusWong said:

    I only have a question for you if CDG/FRA/MXP/AMS are so lucrative, why would Christop Mueller chopped them off at the same place?

    My memory isn’t as good as it used to be. Remind me again, when was the MH twin tragedies and when was Mueller’s tenure again?

    MH never served MXP. Malaysia never had any rights to fly into MXP. I don’t know about now after the ASEAN-EU open skies agreement. 

    17 hours ago, JuliusWong said:

    This is where you are wrong. A country image, good governance and stability have everything to do with travel and tourism. Why would people flying in and out of Europe wants to stop by Malaysia when first, Bangkok offers them more bang for their bucks or second, those rich would want to go to Malaysia when Singapore offers more international flairs with much more high end restaurants, hotels and amusement parks? Charter airlines flying into Thailand endlessly with 530 pax capacity B744?

     Compared those numbers when Malaysians could enter visa-free and those numbers after we are required visa to enter? You should be asking why Malaysia has such high B40 numbers. And yes, people do fly to long haul just for 2-weeks California + Disneyland trip, if MYR has the strength of SGD.

    Again back to my question, what MH/Malaysia can offer to the table?

    You sound like one of those Malaysians I overheard abroad when asked if Malaysia is a nice place to visit. “Malaysia? It’s so boring. Government is corrupt, dirty toilets, racist/unfair government etc. you go visit Singapore or Thailand better”. 
     

    Malaysia has plenty to offer to tourists. I find it rather sad that a Malaysian (I assume you are one) doesn’t know what Malaysia has to offer. Maybe have a tour around Malaysia and see what it offers yourself? Go deep into the jungles in Sabah/Sarawak/Taman Negara and see if TH/SG have the biodiversity that we have? 
     

    You said Singapore has more high end hotels or that Thailand offer better bang for the buck. Do you know that MY/KL hotel rates are the cheapest between the two?! Just compare St. Regis to St. Regis. Or MO with MO or Four Seasons to Four Seasons. And you know that a lot of “tourist activities” are much cheaper here compared to Thailand? 
     

    I can assure you that no one will buy our semi conductor (our largest export) and palm oil if MYR is at parity with SGD. 


  15. Out of curiosity, does MH plan to return to South Africa (JNB/CPT)? 

    19 hours ago, JuliusWong said:

    And with how the government is run and how Malaysians' working attitude even if MH flies to the moon tomorrow, nobody will take them seriously. 

    Why bother going to North America or Europe just to be an airline the public can take serious with? Do you have the pax numbers to sustain such operation? With RM depreciating like a falling brick, your O&D market numbers are so much lower compared, how to justify flying to both region?

    Just to give you an example, Türkiye isn’t exactly known to be a well run country nor a country with strong currency but an extremely well run airline and airport. Look at all the intercontinental carriers flying to IST. 

    From what I’ve been told, the numbers are there to justify for direct flights between CDG/FRA/MXP and KUL (and of course AMS).

    Ringgit is falling, but not a doomsday scenario like many Malaysians are making it out to be. Depreciating against the USD/SGD/VND sure. But against a basket of currencies, they are doing quite ok on YTD, y-o-y and some even to a 5-year period. 
     

    A bit off topic but you can’t compare MYR to SGD. SGD is a huge financial hub and a major importer of goods - they really can’t just let their currency depreciate. Investors love to buy SGD bonds/equities/holdings etc. because it’s a safe haven and doesn’t really fluctuate much against other major currencies. 
     

    USD - well the Feds are rising interest rates and it’s also considered a safe haven. Whenever there’s trouble in the world (aka this past decade?), investors will usually pull out of other currencies and put it in USD. The unfortunate thing is that almost every thing in the world is traded in USD. So we have to live with appreciating USD. 


  16. On 7/27/2022 at 8:43 PM, jahur said:Technically the 330neo already covers most of MH former Eu routes except for maybe Spain, UK and France which still needs the 350 due to multiple things that might affect the a330neo's fuel endurance. 

    Wait. If the 330neo can’t do France with full cargo load, how would it do AMS? Isn’t AMS very cargo heavy (since MHKargo flies there)?

    10 hours ago, JuliusWong said:

     Replying to MH returning to European market:

    The market now is in a bloodbath, unless you have significant brand loyalty/ proposition like SQ, any new adventure into Europe markets will result in you burning more fingers. Strikes by ground crew and air traffic controller, lost luggage, flight delay and cancellation, to cap it. airport restricting your flight movement/slots, LHR and AMS two the biggest hubs in Europe now are in totally chaos. It would be wiser to stick to Asia-Pacific for now, at least for another one or two years, despite half of it are still off limit (China, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Japan). 

    MH may attempt to crack IST market again, but TK is a very strong competitor with significant lower cost of operation despite being a premium carrier, they have been expanding at no cost over the past few years to make IST hub like DXB. Their ticket are significantly cheaper compared to others. MH may earn some revenue, but profit margin may be very slim. Worth venturing? That is a million dollar question.

    Have you seen MH ticket prices on their London flights (just KUL-LHR alone) this summer? It’s ridiculous. And flights are all full. If they can maintain that premium year round, it’d work out great for them. 
     

    MH won’t be competing with one stop service like QR, TK, EK. MH will be the sole carrier flying nonstop between AMS/LHR/CDG/FRA-KUL (KL is supposed to restart KUL nonstop beginning NW22 schedule). Those nonstop service is what’s going to pay the bills. 
     

    TK is significantly cheaper to Europe. But did you check the price of just KUL-IST? You’d be shocked that TK is actually paying you to fly more to Europe but you can stopover in IST twice. 

    6 hours ago, JuliusWong said:

    Malaysia Airlines suffered two crashes in a year, and this will forever be inscribed in people's mind unless the current generation dies overnight. And with how the government is run and how Malaysians' working attitude even if MH flies to the moon tomorrow, nobody will take them seriously. 

    No one will blame MH for MH17. MH370 might be a bigger deterrent. But that was almost a decade ago. Nobody remembers that long. Look at China Airlines (remember the 80s/90s when everyone was avoiding CI like a plague?). 


  17. 40 minutes ago, jahur said:

    Hence why i saw mh retaining 6-9 a333 to up to year 2027 in their planning apparently.

    Frame likely and can be customisable to mh. 

    Still no idea if Endou has the right info but everyone has been speculating that the Msian gov trying to save face by trying to not allow airasia x downsize orders that greatly and moving small part of it to MH. They did the same by forcing RMAF via mindef to lease some of Westar's AW139 helicopters as the company was financially strained apparently.

    Oh nice. A company was over ambitious and MAB is the one paying the price 🤷🏻‍♂️ 
     

    I suppose MH is planning the 6-9 9M-MT* series to fly regional routes  (unless you know a last minute sub to cities like TYO).  Absolutely no plans to increase the 350? 6 is a bit odd. 


  18. 29 minutes ago, jahur said:

    More unconfirmed news floating around. This one coming from Endau Analytics, MH will lease 10 330neo via lessors, and 10 more direct from Airbus which were formerly airasia x orders.

    PM of Malaysia apparently will be there for the signing in the next 2 weeks. 20 units it seems.

    Seems like it’s less than what they’d like? 20 instead of minimum 21? So they are downsizing? 
     

    Is it AAX frame or built to AAX specifications as well?


  19. 18 hours ago, Chris Tan said:

    I think there's a ~3:30pm to JFK as well, yes?

    Oh yes. I didn't realize they added a 1530 flight to JFK. That would be a long day flight to JFK but you won't get any breakfast or supper as meals 👍

    But imagine the horror if you are booked on QR 849 to QR703 (KUL-DOH-JFK) and rebooked to QR 4990 and QR 9001 

     

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